Serbia’s destiny
Russia announced that it withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council after the General Assembly of the Organization voted the day before to suspend its participation due to a special operation in Ukraine. Serbia, among others, voted for it, and its population held rallies of 50,000 in support of Moscow’s actions at the beginning of March 2022.
Re-elected president Aleksandar Vucic described his country’s unexpected stance as an attempt to avoid EU sanctions.
“Our first decision was to abstain, and then you get a lot of pressure that has nothing to do with personal pressure. Nobody said ‘you can’t be president’, they are not blackmailing me personally, they are blackmailing Serbia,” he complained.
It was possible to avoid sanctions – according to media reports, on April 8, the European Union removed Serbia from the list of countries subject to sanctions for the import of Russian oil. Thus, Serbia will continue to import oil through the JANAF Adriatic oil pipeline.
The fact is that the fourth package of EU sanctions against Russia indirectly affected Serbia – according to Vučić, it was allowed to import oil and chemicals only until May 15, since Gazprom is the main owner of the largest industrial company “Serbian Oil Industry”. Allowed. Naphtha.
The Serbian leader also spoke of a possible “nuclear attack” on the republic, which was also read in the Croatian press, sanctions, albeit figuratively, and the suspension of the European route.
Vučić believes that if Belgrade abstains from the UN, “the one and the other” will be against it and the pressure will increase further. He added that a decision is being made on the “fate of Serbia”, in particular whether there will be an exception to the oil sanctions.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, answering a question about Serbia and Hungary’s anti-Russian votes at the UN, said:
Moscow “understands the unprecedented pressure and coercion of anti-Russianism” by those who seek to “take a somewhat balanced position”.
In a comment to socialbites.ca, the head of the Federation Council Committee on International Relations, Grigory Karasin, admitted that he was surprised by Serbia’s position. “But I still have to go through all the details of what happened. Of course it looks a bit strange,” he shared.
By the way, in March, Belgrade already voted on a resolution condemning Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, but for a different reason – otherwise it could not insist on the principle of territorial integrity in the case with Kosovo and Metohija.
What else to expect from Serbs
Serbia continues to follow a multi-vector foreign policy. On the one hand, this country has been an official candidate for EU membership since 2012. According to the European Commission’s estimates in 2018, Belgrade could join the union before 2025 (the Serbs themselves estimate a year later).
At the same time, the Serbian leader constantly reminds that his country continues to adhere to the policy of neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and is “the only one in Europe” who refuses to impose sanctions against Moscow.
And on April 6, Vucic had a phone call with Vladimir Putin about the extension of the gas contract.
“The mutual intention to further develop the Russian-Serbian strategic partnership, to expand trade and economic relations, including in the energy sector, was confirmed,” the Kremlin statement said. said.
People socialbites.ca spoke to agreed that they had yet to see the preconditions for a sharp deterioration in relations between Moscow and Belgrade.
Milan Lazovic, program coordinator of the Russian Council of International Relations, said in a meeting with socialbites.ca that it is unlikely that the Serbs will take serious, rather than symbolic, anti-Russian steps.
“Most likely, this vote at the UN will not affect relations in any way, especially given the recent conversation between Putin and Vucic on gas reductions. Given this, it is unlikely that Serbia will take direct anti-Russian steps, even because of economic interests, let alone the Kosovo factor and pro-Russian sentiment.
Officially, Serbia will not abandon its goal of joining the European Union, but the imposition of sanctions, for example, against Russia, is practically unlikely. And if they are under pressure from the West, then not exactly, but in some cut versions. Relations at this time will definitely not suffer, and it is very difficult to predict what will happen tomorrow, ”says the expert.
Ekaterina Entina, head of the Black Sea-Mediterranean Studies Department of the European Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in a conversation with socialbites.ca that there is no reason for Moscow to deliberately spoil relations with the Serbs.
“We should not expect any cooling in our relations with the continuation of Russia’s balanced policy towards Serbia. We have no reason to proactively worsen relations with a country whose population is almost entirely loyal to us. Also, Serbia has not yet worsened the conditions of our companies on the ground in any way, and there are no signs that it will.
According to Moscow, it is clear that Belgrade is trying to get two seats as efficiently as possible. “Everything in the future will depend on the political conditions that Brussels will impose on Vucic,” he said.
Entina recalled that there were “even worse times” in relations between the two Orthodox partners, for example, when Russia joined the UN Security Council sanctions against Serbia in 1992. But these actions did not adversely affect the attitude of its population towards Russia.
“I hope that Moscow will understand that it is impossible to punish the Serbs now, because in theory they cannot keep the balance. Vucic will try to balance more. It is clear that after the election results he has to tactically win some back on the Brussels side and of course such steps will continue in the future. The question is how critical and fundamental they are.
After all, it is objectively pointless for Serbia to take the side of Brussels and Washington on everything without extraordinary pressure. In addition, Serbia’s multi-vector foreign policy is determined by relations not only with Russia, but also with China,” he said.
At the same time, voting against Russia at the UN could cost Vučić dearly, even without pressure from Moscow: nationalist-minded citizens may not understand him.
“Now Vučić may not be feeling very well at home: protests by the pro-Western opposition were already planned there due to doubts about the election results, and now there may be allegations by nationalists as well.
In general, for various reasons, about 70-80% of the population is really on Russia’s side – someone is in love with it, someone is simply out of great distaste for NATO and the 1999 bombings, and someone simply sympathetically understands what it is. like being subject to systemic sanctions. And if you look at the comments of the Serbs under the articles in the media about the special operations in Ukraine, we see that they are all either neutral or neutral-positive with regard to the assessment of Russia’s actions,” he said.