The war in Ukraine is changing the global geopolitical balance.
On the one hand, Putin and his oligarchic regime are being dramatically isolated as they have lost the support of almost all peoples. ‘illiberal’ regimes of the world Maintaining a more or less implicit community pact with Moscow. The fact that the Russian army, which is poorly prepared, without incentives, and with obsolete weapons, can only provide supplies. North Korea and Iran, a pathetic loneliness that Putin probably did not foresee and that could lead to an embarrassing and resounding defeat for Russia, whose imperial claims are openly ridiculed. Under these conditions, a lightning war scenario that will fulfill Putin’s ambitions in a few days fails, while the harshness of a badly planned war awakens the people of Russia, who fled the country in terror. enlisting in the military, and a crucial repudiation of its leader’s imperialist aggression against his Ukrainian brethren.
On the other hand, and apparently unrelated to the war in Europe, the Iranian regime is faltering because the new generations do not want to put up with the religious authoritarianism of the Shiite mafia any more, which in addition to leaving the country is devastated, pretending. to compel its subjects to conform to the puritanical dogmas of the most radical Islamism. As it is known, there is an explosion of social indignation in the country due to the murder of the 22-year-old woman named Masha Amini, who was arrested for not wearing the headscarf correctly, by the regime police. It is clear that this explosion, spread by social networks around the world, was caused not only by this crime, but also by decades of reactionary repression, brutal repression, and economic and diplomatic incompetence.
At first glance, the difficulties faced by these two authoritarian regimes are good news for democracies around the world. The threatening thesis that we can return to another bipolarity between democracies and illiberal systems club, this time dissipated as China. giant that relentlessly conditions world geopoliticsshows the development of the country and raising the standard of living of its citizens as its main ambition; this distinguishes it from the reactionary messianism of Moscow, whose whims have condemned the Russian people to a certain ordeal that they have now begun. Likewise, Turkey and India, playing the Russian trick at times to support certain interests that conflict with Washington’s, have openly distanced themselves from the Russian leader’s ultranationalist delirium.
However, while it is clear that the fall of both regimes will represent a very thought-provoking geostrategic storm, it is clear that the fall of Russia and Iran does not put viable solutions in perspective. this spanish pass, The transition from autocracy to democracy took place within the framework of a very mature society with two very clear vectors that were decisive: the change had to be peaceful and the goal was to build a democratic regime comparable to all Western Europeans. Whose club did we want to join? In the cases mentioned, it cannot be assumed that the societies involved are capable of leading transformations in any way comparable to the process we should all be proud of. In the case of Russia, real power is in the hands of an open oligarchy that will not tolerate it. accident the destruction of the regime or the destruction of the country (which is also a guarantee that they will not turn a blind eye to Putin’s use of atomic weapons). In the case of Iran, the disappearance of the Ayatollah’s regime would leave a bottomless void that is very difficult to fill as Iranians have no precedent to look at.
keeping russian regime It will positively change many European attitudes as the democratic club can grow eastward. Iran would end the old rivalry between Sunnis and Shiites, calm the Middle East, and offer Israel a solution to the eternal Palestinian problem. Right now these are just chances, but it wouldn’t be bad to start blocking these changes that we will one day have to manage all members of the international community.