Putin failed in his initial strategy of a lightning strike, which would include the rapid conquest of the Ukrainian capital and the overthrow of the Zelensky government and the consequent collapse of Ukrainian morale and resistance. Instead, the attacked country resisted the initial attack and even launched some successful counterattacks. On the one hand, the Russian armed forces, pushed into an invasion in the middle of winter, so far lacked good logistics and supply chains, and found themselves blinded by a Western-stimulated, combat-ready and far more motivated Ukrainian army. Some of their communications weren’t even encrypted. Strategically, the occupiers can be attacked from three main points (north, east and south) and multiple targets simultaneously (Kyiv, Kharkov, Odessa, Mariupol, Donbas, etc.). Military aid from the United States and Europe was also decisive; The Stinger anti-aircraft missiles (which prevented Russia from controlling the skies) and the famous Javelin anti-tank missiles are particularly effective, easy to use, and particularly lethal. Russian losses exceed all losses recorded in the ten years of Soviet intervention in Afghanistan (1979-1989), in addition, significant material losses (tanks, aircraft, etc.)
All this led to Russia’s withdrawal from the Kyiv region, where the city of Bucha was devastated and hundreds of bodies were dumped on the streets, leaving a bleak picture where Ukraine regained control of Antonov airport and Chernobyl, among other places. . . . Everything indicates that Moscow has abandoned its final program (total conquest, regime change, annexation of the East to the Dnieper) but will try to secure the profits that will allow Putin to save face, declare victory and end this disastrous war . It would not be enough for him to capture the brutally besieged Mariupol and connect the entire huge area he occupied in the north of Crimea (Kherson, Melitopol) to the pro-Russian Donbas strip. Only the complete occupation of this basin, that is, the full dominance of the Lugansk and Donetsk provinces (which is not the case at the moment) and their inclusion in the Russian federation can allow Putin to declare himself the winner and end the aggression or, alternatively, achieve the neutrality status of Ukraine. This second route was considered open to negotiation by President Zelensky, but naturally it requires his country to obtain guarantees made by third countries to deter the Russian regime from new attacks. In any case, a dilemma arises between resisting more civilian deaths and destruction in Ukraine and accepting an unjust and insecure peace, because such a compromise (open neutrality) is illegitimate and illegal, including many of Putin’s. It means rewarding the use of force. war crimes committed. Although from a human point of view, it would be the most desirable.
The West, and especially Europe, is faced with various dilemmas. On the one hand, European Russian oil and gas imports continue to finance Putin’s war machine, but Germany is firmly opposed to banning them, given its over-reliance on these fossil fuels. In any case, all member states suffer from high energy prices, which softens the “warlike zeal”. Only Pedro Sánchez managed to separate the gas price from the electricity price, which is currently limited to Spain and Portugal, opening an important way out.
On the other hand, the Ukrainian government is requesting more military assistance, from more advanced anti-aircraft defense systems to armored vehicles, tanks and warplanes. Defeat the invader for sure. But the Kremlin arbitrarily threatens to label states that provide armor and warplanes as “joint combatants”, causing Westerners to blink at the risk of starting a general war with a nuclear component.
To do? As long as Ukraine chooses to continue resisting the occupation rather than communicating with the wheels of the mill, Europe should increase its assistance as much as possible out of solidarity and what it means to defend our own security and values. The more effective its armed forces and the weaker Russia’s finances, the better position Kiev will be to get a fair deal in negotiations. It is necessary to find the appropriate formula to deliver the weapons Zelensky demands. Some additional steps could be taken in the area of sanctions, for example, an international ban on the purchase of Russian oil, which is more acceptable to the German and European economy than to cut gas in the short term. In the medium term, the Union could neutralize increases in energy prices with a transfer system to companies and households financed by a new issuance of long-term community debt. But for the moment the Council of Europe lacks determination and political imagination, goods are scarcer than raw materials.