Shortly before the Second World War ended with Germany’s defeat, then-US Secretary of the Treasury Henry Morgenthau devised the eponymous plan for that country.
It was a proposal designed to deprive Germany of some of its territory, depriving it of its industrial potential so that it would not have enough military strength to attack its neighbors again.
The plan ultimately failed. Reason prevailed over the desire for vengeance. West Germany was thus able to benefit from the so-called Marshall plan, and with its reunification soon after, Germany would become Europe’s largest industrial engine.
The country had many things in its favour: First, its central position in Europe was strengthened after the end of the Cold War, with the incorporation of Eastern countries into the European Union, which represented a new market for their exports to the time they provided. cheap labor.
But Germany also benefited mainly from the cheap Russian gas needed by its burgeoning industry, thanks to the Nord Stream One pipeline.
While other countries such as the USA or the UK outsourced their industrial production to countries with cheap labor, the importance of finance capital increased in these countries, while Germany continued to bet on the export industry.
Large industrial plants and suppliers, particularly in sectors such as energy, agrochemicals, machine building, and of course automobiles, not only provided ample jobs, but were also a source of innovation and, of course, a source of income for the State.
But unfortunately, something happened that no one expected: Russia invaded its neighbor Ukraine, NATO countries reacted with strong economic and trade sanctions against the aggressor, and the dependence on Russian gas that had benefited Germany so much was suddenly cursed.
The great increase in energy prices, which until then was plentiful and cheaper than Russia, and which Germany now had to seek in more distant countries, increases production costs and jeopardizes the industrial structure.
To all this is recently added another worrying factor: the shortage of specialized labor in key sectors of the economy, a fact that worries the country more and more, and is the reason why Berlin decided to facilitate immigration.
For the first time, some experts warn of the country’s danger of “deindustrialisation” and accuse Olaf Scholz’s coalition government of trying to accelerate the transition to alternative energies and giving up traditional energies prematurely.
The problem isn’t just for big industry, but sectors like agriculture will also be affected if some nitrogen fertilizer or pesticide manufacturers are forced to suspend production due to shortages or high gas prices.
According to a recent survey by the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce, 17 percent of companies from different sectors consulted at least for fear of having to cut their production due to such high energy prices.
In industries with large energy consumers such as chemicals, steel, aluminium, zinc or glass, the percentage is even higher – up to 32 percent.