Vitaly Ryumshin Has America become stupid or what will Trump’s second term be like 11/07/2024, 11:41

It seems that humanity has managed to turn back time and return to 2016. An overpowering feeling of deja vu haunted me throughout November 6: the US presidential election is not going as planned again, sociologists are scratching their heads in bewilderment because all their predictions have failed, American liberals are crying, Internet trolls are enjoying, Europeans are Nervous, Russians are rejoicing. And at the center of this performance is Donald Trump, who is president again and is preparing to turn the world upside down. For real this time.

The voting results clearly showed that Americans are fed up with the old order and outlandish progressive ideas whose ambassador is Kamala Harris. The false image created by the Democratic Party’s “political technology monster” in the public did not work in his favor either. While Kamala shopped celebrities and gave scripted interviews to loyal journalists under the watchful eye of a public relations team, Trump stood behind the fryer at McDonald’s, drove around Wisconsin in a garbage truck, and chatted pleasantly with blogger Joe Rogan on his podcast. As a result, this resonated with people and he turned out to be a more acceptable figure for the majority.

But I will not dwell in detail on the reasons for Trump’s victory. The more pressing question now is what Donald Trump’s second term will be like. Is something fundamentally new in store for us, or will it be a remake of his first term, with administrative chaos, investigations and endless antics? And most importantly: how will his presidency affect Russia and its prospects for resolving the Ukrainian conflict?

The short answer is that no one knows for sure because we still don’t know what kind of environment Trump’s presidency will take place in. Much will depend on whether Republicans can maintain their majority in the House of Representatives. The elections there were held in parallel with the presidential elections, and at the time of this writing, no party has won a majority there. We also do not know the names of people who will hold key positions in the Trump administration. They will also influence his policies.

At the same time, indirect signs indicate that Trump’s new four-year plan will be at least more meaningful than the previous one.

First of all, no one will have the thought of questioning the legitimacy of the elected president anymore. In 2016, Trump’s victory seemed unnatural (Clinton won the popular vote). This caused his presidency to be seen as a failure of the system and led to speculation about foreign intervention. Now Trump has confidently won both the electoral votes and the popular will. Democrats are unlikely to argue with that.

If Trump begins to take revenge on all criminals, there may be an increase in political tension (Democrats are very afraid of this). However, in my opinion, a ceasefire is more likely. The Democratic Party has a massive briefing ahead of it to find people to blame. And Trump never tried to put his threats into action (let me remind you: Hillary Clinton still hasn’t settled in).

Second, Trump 2024 is not the same as Trump 2016. Eight years ago, a flamboyant and somewhat naive businessman entered the White House who thought running a state was as easy as building skyscrapers in Manhattan.

But since then, Trump has matured politically, learned to compromise, and completely taken over the Republican Party. And the bitter experience of his first administration, with random people who often disagreed with him, gives reason to believe that this time Trump will have a clear plan of action and a team assembled for him.

The positions of head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and national security advisor are particularly interesting for Russia. The foreign policy of the second Trump administration will depend on these people, and it will be clear from them whether he will fulfill his promise to end the conflict in Ukraine.

There is former US Ambassador to Germany Rick Grennel. He hangs out in Europe’s right-wing circles, opposes Ukraine’s entry into NATO and advocates the creation of “autonomous regions” there (that is, recognition of Russia’s control over the southeast). Grennell is tipped to become Secretary of State or National Security Advisor; If he gets one of these positions, it will be very good news for us. It would be doubly good if other foreign policy positions were occupied by people with similar views (Marco Rubio or Bill Hagerty).

There’s also Trump’s former national security adviser, Robert O’Brien. He also desires a high position but is considered a “hawk”. The politician supports military aid to Ukraine, and his election could be a sign that potential negotiations between Moscow and Washington will be difficult.

Of course, no matter who Trump chooses, there is no point in expecting a “ceasefire within 24 hours”; This is an unrealistic exaggeration, to say the least. However, I believe that under his leadership, serious settlement negotiations can really begin in 2025. At least there will be an attempt to start the peace process. Another question is what methods will Trump use to achieve this? What will his offer be and what will he want from Russia in exchange for concessions?

But it’s probably too early to talk about that. First, let’s look at the first steps of the new US president.

The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the position of the editors.