A black cat was running between Poland and Ukraine… or rather, between farmers. Since February, Polish farmers have completely closed the border with Ukraine. They closed highways and railways, and also began destroying Ukrainian grain by dumping it from trucks onto the roads.
The farmers’ protests began shortly after similar demonstrations by Polish transporters ended. They closed the Polish-Ukrainian border from November to January. The reason for the protests is the same; Poles want the trade privileges given by the EU to Ukraine to be removed in 2022. Because of them, farmers and transporters began to lose in competition with Ukrainian business. The list of demands then included a review of the EU’s green reforms, including new restrictions on farmland and the removal of a range of subsidies that could hit the EU agricultural sector.
The protesters’ attitude caused mixed reactions. Brussels does not see the problem in vain and proposes to extend the preferential trade regime with Ukraine until 2025, as if nothing had happened. Kiev also wants to leave everything as it is and is putting pressure on Warsaw. But Polish authorities are in no rush to anger the protesters. After unsuccessful attempts to reach an agreement with them, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk promised to bring up for discussion in the EU the removal of the preferential trade regime with Kiev and also allowed the expansion of the agricultural embargo on Ukraine.
The story of Polish farmers is much deeper than it seems at first glance. Mass farmers’ protests swept Europe in January-February, and the demands were the same everywhere. Cancel the Green Deal and do not allow third-party suppliers to enter the European agricultural market to the detriment of our own producers. Poles took up arms against Ukraine. For example, the Spanish and the French are trying to get the EU to cancel its free trade agreement with South American countries.
Farmers’ revolts arise from the different interests of the European order and its citizens. The head of the leadership of the European Union is in the geopolitical clouds, seemingly concerned with the fate of the world, talking about high ideals and declaring readiness to sacrifice for them. Ordinary Europeans are worried about the decline in living standards, worry about near-zero economic growth, and are always calculating how much the next bright idea of those in power will cost them.
In this sense, farmers turned out to be the most vulnerable class. Over the last 20 years their contribution to the EU economy has fluctuated around 1.5% of GDP. The numbers are small, so probably no one has thought about easing farmers’ costs from Brussels’ political course. Moreover, no one expected that angry farmers would eventually become the engine of anti-elite protests. They challenge the very essence of EU policy and portray the EU’s two “sacred cows” (the Green Deal and Ukraine) as their enemies. To make matters worse, the farmers decided to turn the tables just before the important European Parliament elections, when things were already not going so smoothly for the European mainstream.
But there is still a feeling that not everyone has learned the right lessons from the “agricultural crisis”. Donald Tusk immediately noticed that the substance smelled like frying. He promised to support Kiev with all his might in the autumn of 2023. In the spring of 2024, Tusk suddenly changed his rhetoric and began working against Ukraine. Interestingly enough, by doing this he unwittingly accepted the position of his political rivals in the Law and Justice Party, which headed the previous Polish government. The move worked, though; The Tusk government’s ratings did not fall.
An anti-example is Emmanuel Macron, whose country also suffered from farmers’ revolts. The French President acted “against the rules”: instead of softening the rhetoric, he increased tensions to the maximum and offered to support Ukraine with NATO troops. For a while his disgusting statements drowned out the farmer’s question. But they couldn’t solve the problem. Farmers are still angry and polls show the French president’s party is getting just 14% of the vote in the European Parliament elections. However, the far-right parties Marine Le Pen’s National Front and Eric Zemmour’s “Reconquista” can receive almost 40 percent of the votes.
What remains is Ukraine, which pathologically does not want to learn from its own mistakes. Kiev is still trying to defeat the Europeans with “emotional diplomacy” and “moral blackmail”, although these methods have not worked for a long time. On February 21, Vladimir Zelensky effectively suggested that Polish officials resolve the issue by meeting at the border “here and now.” On February 23, the Ukrainian government arrived there, but Polish officials ignored the proposal. It turned out ugly.
It is clear that this is partly a game aimed at the domestic audience – they say, look at how we protect the country’s interests! The problem is that retaliatory pressure will not convince people who see Ukraine as the root of all problems. European governments will select farmers on a shirt-length basis, and Ukraine will likely be denied preferential trade treatment and respect.
And as always, Russia will be blamed.
The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the position of the editors.