Under normal circumstances, political cycles are often produced by the wear and tear of ideological materials. But when the socioeconomic process devolves from crisis to crisis, the political process is highly conditioned.
Here, in the first decades of the millennium, we have chained a major financial and monetary crisis – the first truly global crisis in history – that erupted in 2008, an unprecedented pandemic in 2020, and an unsettling war in Europe. And this unpredictable process led to the early general elections in 2011, in which citizens tried to administer the shock therapy that the European Union and multilateral institutions gave us, opening a stage that ended with an act of censorship on June 1, 2018. He burned Mariano Rajoy, a lender living with the rampant corruption of his colleagues and pushing the predicted austerity policies to unbearable limits.
During this cursed period of 2008-2020, the bipartisan parliamentary model that emerged spontaneously after the end of the UCD’s centrist experiment in 1982 was blown up. And as the PSOE and PP weakened, Podemos, a left-wing populist force, and VOX, the true version of post-Francoism that once came to the fore as the dictator was forgotten by new generations and had no reservations about recovery, came to the fore. its authoritarian legacy. Ciudadanos also appeared, a party catch them all When the PSOE arrived in La Moncloa, it took much of the seed of that original centrism that sank; The C’s, however, actually committed suicide, but on the day of the second election of 2019.
In this context, the Andalusian elections can be interpreted as a coup pointing to the return of politics to its original channels, a flawed bipartisanship with or without technical support. Political scientist Duverger’s well-known law states that majority electoral systems lead to a two-party parliamentary model (UK or USA), while proportional systems create a multiparty model (Italy or Portugal); In conclusion, it can be argued that corrected proportionality systems (through the Spanish Hondt law) lead to defective bipartisanship. These have a beneficial vote for larger entities because the greater value obtained by voting for them is mathematically verifiable (fewer votes provide greater political profitability).
In Andalusia, citizens were warned of the risk of being manipulated by Vox, a far-right party that actually facilitated the formation of the outgoing government and showed its face in these three years of the last legislature. Likewise, voters, with their keen sense of smell, noticed the clear confusion to the left of the PSOE, with few soldiers and many generals, and where the struggle between egos was fierce. And he acted with succinct rationality: he gave the PP a quorum not to be dependent on Vox (a party that is nothing more than mothball rhetoric if there is no opportunity to influence) and lessens the confusion. With the peculiarity that Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía received almost the same votes as Vox, which separately reached 14 seats. And that, not taking into account the imprecise but real impact that the rupture of the UP space has had, was so incapable that he was unable to finish negotiations in time to join forces and prevent Teresa Rodriguez from closing, he said enthusiastically – to lead an “autonomous and Andalusian” force. The citizens’ angry response to the bullshit is just two seats.
Still penalized by the EREs’ lawsuit, the PSOE has not been able to rebuild itself in time, and the government’s serious crises – the epidemic and the Ukrainian war are threatened by a global recession. Sánchez will have to do something to get the generals out of here. In any case, his sobriety is the guarantee of the future, whether he likes the voters’ decisions or not.