optimism among the popular

On the outskirts of the national PP persistently begins to repeat one word: “We are back!” It is not the first time that electoral optimism has turned into a bitter defeat a few months later. This – let’s remember – was José María Aznar’s experience before he won his first victory in 1996. Although regional and local elections set the trend, the regional power structure does not necessarily mean a victory in the general elections. While awaiting the results of the Andalusian elections, the PSOE began confirming that Sánchez was no longer contributing to the vote, despite the fact that the lack of control over the public accounts turned into a constant risk of one million people, both Europeans and non-Europeans. However, Sánchez continues to have a considerable advantage: his parliamentary arithmetic advantage, which, once the Cs project is exhausted, leaves the entire space to the left of the PP as the socialist zone, in agreement with either the extreme left or the extreme left. with regional parties and more or less high-ranking nationalists. Feijóo can ally with Vox and little else, and that – Sánchez knows – not only does not mobilize the vote, but also reduces the chances of a conservative government in a society as fragmented as the current one.

We are still not fully aware of the damage to Spanish society between the period of mass ideologization that began with the 2008 economic crisis, the class rupture, the discrediting of the democracy deal supported by the extreme left, and the explosion of the delirium Independentista. ; Others – perhaps rightly – want to see the beginning of our drift in the governments of Rodriguez Zapatero or the second legislature of José María Aznar. There are good reasons to argue or chain up both hypotheses; but in any case, real parliamentary atomization took place in the dreadful decade from 2008 to 2018, which brought marked political, economic and social disruption to our country. Sanchismo did not assume a change of orientation. On the contrary, it has accelerated the ideological leaks caused by such blind identitarianism. It is not easy to argue that we have improved something in these last four years.

With Unidas Podemos in decline, the PSOE frayed, and Vox on the rise, Feijóo must be wondering if his commitment to low-profile politics is paying off. Andalusia will provide some keys in this regard. There, PP chose to swallow the C’s centrist vote rather than compete for Vox’s mobilized vote. However, beyond what the polls show, no one today knows whether this bet will be the winner or whether the Andalusians will end up by surprise. While nothing predicts a change in trend for Sánchez, anything is possible. An explosive tourist summer will be followed by a long autumn and winter marked by the weight of inflation, rising interest rates, deterioration in credit and trade, and growing resentment among citizens. A conflict that was initially expected to last much longer than anticipated, the war in Ukraine is affecting food supply and energy prices, including the front with Algeria due to the senseless government change of position with the Sahara. . Improvisations are expensive. And throughout these years, Pedro Sánchez has only shown himself as a born improviser.