2024 starts with an election sign. Elections are planned to be held in Galicia, the Basque Country, Russia, the USA and the European Union. Maybe if they feature it in Catalonia too. Elections will determine our immediate destiny and can of course mean significant changes. This is not the case, especially in Russia, where Vladimir Putin’s victory during the war seemed indisputable.
The rhythms of the Slavic country are not ours, no matter how much we would like them to be so. More or less of the predictions of Western intelligence about the economic impact of sanctions on Moscow have come true, so Russia looks stronger today than it did a few years ago, that is, it looks more confident. But more important are the US presidential elections that will take place in November this year. Between Trump and Biden, to name the two most viable candidates today, there is more at stake than Western economic growth: it is also world peace and stability. Ukraine, in particular, fears election results that could bring support for Kiev under control in the medium and long term. A Europe that has been militarily anemic for decades will be unable to compensate for the change in orientation of American policy if an isolationist candidate wins the elections. And of course, a Russian victory on the Ukrainian front would mean a real change in the Union’s budget priorities; In fact, this has already happened. Defense will continue to shape our near future.
European elections will have both internal and external readings: both important, both closely interrelated. Because the threats shaking the Union actually have a very similar DNA: They are under the imposition of populism on the one hand, and excessive bureaucratization and interventionism on the other. Will the two central ideological currents of the union, the social democrats and the popular ones, be able to maintain parliamentary control of broadcasting? Of course, but at what cost? Will populist parties jeopardize the current European project? It is worth looking at it from the other side and assuming that difficulties are opportunities.
The European elections will also show us what the electoral ceiling the PSOE has maintained after the amnesty agreement with the independents. My prediction is that if there is no economic crisis in the coming months, the PP will win the elections with a smaller margin than the polls show. Socialist erosion is deep, but slow, and largely mitigated by budgetary donations. Spanish parties will have to face two more decisive races in 2024: in Galicia, where any result other than an absolute majority of the popular parties will be interpreted as a failure; and in the Basque Country, where there was a game between nationalists and Bildu was able to not only win the elections but also form a government. What the PNV’s defeat will mean for regional stability and support for the central government remains to be seen, but it will certainly have no small impact. Will Feijóo’s PP be able to regain the initiative in structuring post-election agreements? Maybe not initially, but the deck would be reopened. In the end, realism of interests always prevails. Nothing stays constant forever.