How many things are different from how we think of them; Therefore, the value of our predictions is limited even in the short term. Changes take time, and when they accelerate (for example, those related to technological substitution), society quickly adapts to them. Of course, there are always winners and losers (this seems to be a universal law): some countries get rich while others go bankrupt. Marc Bloch said that major social failures arise from intelligence errors; But our mistakes and errors are so numerous that it is almost impossible to correct them systematically. More than a conjunctural analysis—or understanding, to use Jesuit terminology—perhaps an examination of virtues and principles would be appropriate: the virtue of honesty, thrift, personal and collective responsibility, respect for the real over speculation. etc. But even if we assume all these principles and apply them scrupulously, history is often driven by a mysterious coincidence that produces unforeseen consequences. The classics taught that hope was a vice—it was St. Paul who made it a central virtue for the Christian worldview—because nothing can be done against the blind power of fate. We moderns no longer accept this fatalism specific to ancient societies. And so we do.
