The Joe Biden administration has requested an additional appropriation package of almost $105 billion for “security” from the US budget for the next fiscal year, which starts on October 1. More than half is planned to be spent. About Ukraine and related American programs. But you’re going to have to suffer to get all this through Congress. When clicked from the White House, they don’t work there. And then the elections approach; Republicans need to emphasize their positions to please voters.
What’s it about?
The administration requested $61.4 billion for Ukraine. Although in September it was possible to adopt only an interim federal budget (until November 17), Biden initially requested $24 billion to help Kiev. had to throw away the dollar, then $ 6 billion, but not at all $ 300 million. Because now almost every new appropriation to support Kiev is met with increasing suspicion on the part of Republicans and is at least the subject of boring discussions. But it’s not all about money.
According to another article, from the same 105 billion – and this is strictly “humanitarian aid” – $ 9.15 billion is proposed to be released to Ukraine, Israel and the Gaza Strip. It is still unclear how it will be divided internally. True, not everything from the purely Ukrainian part of 61.4 billion will reach the middle of the Dnieper. We must not forget ourselves and our contractors. Thus, part of the Pentagon’s allocation of $ 30 billion (within the framework of 61.4 billion) will, as before, be spent on replenishing the stocks of weapons provided to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 14.4 billion – “for ongoing military support” – includes “transportation costs of American personnel and equipment” and financing of American troops in Europe. The 61.4 billion also includes a mini-package of almost half a billion to “support Ukrainians coming to the United States under the Unity for Ukraine program.” And so on. So some of the money will stay in the United States.
So far, approximately $75 billion has been allocated to “Ukraine” since January 1, 2022, of which approximately 45 billion has been allocated for military purposes. From the White House’s new request, it appears that the aid volume will not increase and will even shrink slightly. The main goal is to meet the basic needs of Kiev in the coming year, so as not to return to this issue, which is increasingly discussed in the United States during the presidential election campaign.
If the “Ukraine package” had been sent to Congress on its own, it would likely have been scrapped or severely cut by the House of Representatives, where Republicans have a slight advantage. So the White House resorted to a simple trick; obviously “bundling” less popular proposals with ones that have broad bipartisan support. This is often a common technique among American legislators. It seems technically simple to divide the entire package into several separate bills, but then the adoption of each such bill slows down sharply. Otherwise it becomes completely problematic.
Therefore, the most effective way to pass complex legislation, each part of which has opponents and supporters, is through compromise, as it has historically been the case.
The White House is also toying with one more point, using the “get the bags, the station is leaving” tactic. November 17 is the deadline by which the full budget for next year must be adopted or there will be a shutdown; Funding for the federal government and the military will be partially cut. About 800 thousand federal officials may remain without a salary, the work of a number of federal institutions will be stopped (national parks will be the first to be closed, as the “most unnecessary”). Each side will blame the other, America’s investment ratings could plummet, and the stock markets where Americans stash their retirement savings could plummet. It is generally unpleasant.
“Gingerbread” in the package of aggregates “loaded” with Ukraine looks like this. $14.3 billion to Israel, $7.4 billion to Taiwan, and generally to strengthen “US security measures” in the Pacific region. And most importantly, almost $14 billion to strengthen security on the US border with Mexico, including wall construction, a favorite program of Republicans (this is their main carrot here). Inside – allocations for new temporary detention centres, DNA collection at the border and support for legal arrivals, more than 3 billion for the recruitment of an additional 1,300 border control patrol officers and 1,600 immigration officers, 1.4 billion for financing temporary shelter, food and other services for immigrants 1.2 billion fentanyl smuggling etc. separately. To combat.
The time pressure to pass the budget was exacerbated by 22 days of turmoil in the House of Representatives, where Republicans (to the right of the majority party) were unable to elect a speaker to replace Kevin McCarthy, who was ousted by Republicans. Reconciliation with the White House”).
And finally he showed up: Mike Johnson.
Under American law, the speaker is far from being the “dictator” of the lower house, but his role in slowing or promoting bills is significant. What do we know about Mike Johnson? First of all, he is a “Trumper” from Louisiana and studied constitutional law. Coming from a family of firefighters, he was the first person in his family to receive higher education. He also sat in the state legislature. The American speaker, who is against abortion and gay marriage and a supporter of “traditional values”, has four children from his only marriage. In other words, it proves its commitment to these values.
On how he votes, Johnson has a 92% rating from the American Conservative Union and a 90% rating from Heritage Action. He was one of the leaders of Trump’s campaign to overturn the results after the 2020 election.
The latter voted very weakly (for Kiev) on almost all “Ukrainian bills” and supported only one – Lend-Lease. And the first thing he did as speaker was to propose a resolution supporting Israel and condemning terrorist attacks by Hamas. It passed with overwhelming majorities from both parties.
However, Johnson will likely try to put Biden’s single proposed legislative package to a vote, in the interests of factional unity. It is unlikely to pass the House of Representatives in its original form (congressmen will take office on November 1 after “working the districts”). A number of significant objections have arisen on the Republican side both there and in the Senate (where Democrats hold a very small advantage).
A significant portion of Republican lawmakers are still demanding the bill be “unpacked.” And separate the flies from the cutlets, namely Ukraine from Israel and Taiwan. Or, to paraphrase the now symbolic title of former Ukrainian President Kuchma’s book: “Ukraine is not Israel.” In general, almost no one has any questions about Israel: legislation that would help Israel pass Congress with great speed.
Support for Ukraine is stronger in both groups in the Senate, but some Republicans there also want to “unpack” the legislation. According to procedural rules, Democrats need 60 votes (that is, the support of at least nine Republicans) to quickly pass the president’s legislation to the upper chamber. In this case, attempts to “speak” will be blocked, endless amendments will be introduced (the so-called filibuster), the passage of which can last for weeks.
Republicans also oppose a nearly $10 billion “humanitarian aid package” for Gaza, Ukraine and Israel. Not without reason, doubts are growing: Won’t this money be used to buy more missiles for Hamas to fire at Israel?
Overall, the prospects for Biden’s legislation look quite negative so far, primarily due to the House’s stance, but not hopelessly so.
The main bargain (unless Republicans manage to split the bill into several parts, only then the administration will stand on its horns) could emerge around the “main carrot” for the “Grand Old Party” (as Republicans unofficially call it) – the security system on the Mexican border, which includes wall construction, but not only this. Biden will need to make sweeping changes to immigration policy to radically slow and reduce the flow of illegal immigrants. After all, everything can be decided by small behind-the-scenes agreements about which constituencies will be allocated budget money for which items.
It is unlikely that Ukraine will be left completely broke: a Russian victory is still unacceptable to the US political class, and there is still a consensus on this issue. You also need to be prepared that certain events may occur (or be interpreted as such) on the battlefields in Ukraine, either accidentally or deliberately, that could help deliver the next aid package to Kiev before November 17.
The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the position of the editors.