In Andalusia, the decline in all candidacy of the left is general. The pre-election poll from the CIS for the 2022 regional elections reflects a 10-point drop in the vote estimate (in current voting) by the PSOE. From 34.7% to 25.2%. For Andalusia (IU and Podemos), Adelante Andalucía (created by Teresa Rodriguez after leaving Podemos in 2018) is up to 14.4%, almost five points less than Podemos only added in the previous election; Three candidates to the left of PSOE in the previous elections of 2015. The drop is general across all alternatives and is also evaluated in blocks: if in 2015 the left exceeds 60% in voting intent, the right now reaches 55 in the forecast, always as a percentage of valid votes. The CIS Survey was released on Thursday, June 2 and was conducted from May 3 to 12, with 95.5% confidence and +/- 2.8% margin of error, according to the Technical File.
“I don’t know/no answer” now reaches 25%; It was 21.3% in the 2015 poll, but 11% at the time, three times as many as now, had decided not to vote. Participation may increase, but the victory of the right, and especially of the People’s Party, seems clear, no matter how much the left attempts to mobilize. If we agree with the assessment of the leaders, Juanma Moreno, the PP candidate and the current head of the Andalusian Government, is highly passed with 6.28; Juan A. Marín, vice-president and candidate for C, followed with 5.19. Other candidates fail. The lowest score belongs to Vox candidate Macarena Olona with 3.80. The PP approves in management, has a better leader, inspires more confidence, better defends Andalusia’s interests, the ideas of people like you (question 9 et seq.). If Feijoo comes close to belittling the drop in unemployment, they will invite him to stay in Madrid.
The problem that the People’s Party may experience is that it will not be able to reach the 55 votes required to govern alone. At best, the three seats Ciudadanos could get would still put him under the majority.
In previous elections, the votes were split between the four left-wing candidates; On 19 June it will be split into only three: for Andalusia, Forward Andalusia, and for the PSOE. There are also three on the right: Vox, Ciudadanos and the People’s Party; In previous elections, it was only the last two parties. On this occasion, the d’Hont seat allocation system does not particularly benefit any bloc or party. The Left is reaping the fruits of its divisions: the confrontation, though distant, between Susana Díaz and Pedro Sánchez; and very recently those of United We Can with Izquierda Unida and Adelante Andalucía. They have a year until the municipal elections, especially to fix the split to the left of the PSOE. Voters are not worth postings or merging or merging and punishing splits.
In conclusion: according to the CIS estimation, the PP clearly wins with a maximum of forty-nine seats, and all three Ciudadanos could be added assuming they were removed, but even then there wouldn’t be enough to rule; Unless it’s in a coalition with Vox, which according to the CIS will get between 17 and 21 MPs. In addition, PP may agree with some of the left-wing abstentions. It is another option.