The European Union may begin negotiations on accepting Ukraine into its ranks as early as this year. How long can they last and what are their prospects for membership?
Ukraine had its sights set on EU integration before the current military conflict began. But I would apply later, in 2024. After February 24, 2022, everything accelerated. The EU accepted Kiev’s application under the accelerated procedure a week after the start of the SVO. Since then an unwavering commitment to the idea of accepting the country into their ranks has been declared. It is envisaged that this will be done only after the conflicts end. Although perhaps an explanation will appear later – “or in case of freezing of the military conflict.” They admitted that they divided Cyprus and the Greek part into the EU.
It is more or less clear that tolerance can be shown towards Ukraine for purely political reasons.
Although after the cessation of hostilities these problems and even objections from individual member states may arise, and they are now being retouched due to the need to maintain pure unity.
The EU leadership and the leaders of individual countries never tire of repeating that Kiev must “meet the criteria” and that they will not make major concessions on this. Maybe there won’t be big ones, but there will be little ones, you see. After all, interpreting what “meets the criteria” can be quite subjective. Moreover, in the EU, the idea that the expansion of the union should be a guarantee of its security and that the remaining countries (for example, the Western Balkans) will not fall under Moscow’s influence now seems to be maturing.
There are seven main criteria for compliance with EU requirements:
• Regardless of the geographical location of the country, it belongs to European civilization.
• Respect for the fundamental principles of the EU Treaty, in particular the principles of democracy, equality, human rights and freedoms.
• Stable functioning of state and public institutions.
• The country must be democratic.
• Respect for the rule of law and human rights, including the protection of national minorities.
• The economy must be a normally functioning market economy and have a stable financial system.
• Legislation needs to be harmonized with European law.
After the application is submitted, the European Commission evaluates whether the established criteria are met (the EC report on this issue will be published for Ukraine in November). Then you need to get candidate member status (or not). This is roughly the same as the status of candidate member of the CPSU in the USSR. However, the “candidate” period is not officially limited. Currently, Turkey, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia have candidate status. Applications were made at different times, in Turkey, and often half a century ago. Candidate status was also assigned at different times.
Thus, North Macedonia (formerly Macedonia) applied for membership in 2004, was granted candidate status in 2005, and substantive negotiations began in 2020. They were blocked by Greece, demanding that the name of the country be changed, which only coincides with the name of the Greek province. Albania submitted its application in 2009, received candidate status in 2014, and negotiations began in 2020. Montenegro has had candidate status since 2010, negotiations have been going on since 2012 and are going difficult. The situation with Serbia is even more difficult: application in 2009, candidate since 2012, negotiations since 2014, but no progress has been achieved due to the low level of economic development, unwillingness to recognize Kosovo’s independence and participate in anti-Russian sanctions. .
Even the evaluation phase itself (whether or not candidate status is granted) can take different forms, as we have seen.
Based on the results of the relevant negotiations, a report is prepared for the EU Council, which returns to the European Parliament (you need a simple majority) and decides to start accession negotiations. The country receives official candidate status.
Once you receive it, a more detailed description of the entry requirements for this country appears. Moreover, both from the EU as a whole and from individual countries. Negotiations are approaching – bilaterally and with almost everyone (who is interested in them in principle). At this stage, each EU member can put forward its own demands and conditions, and the subject of bilateral consultations can be very broad and cover all (and not only) areas of the economy where there are overlapping interests.
Therefore, it is already clear that negotiations on agricultural issues between Kiev and its neighbors will be very difficult. And Hungary, for example, has long had claims against Ukraine regarding the rights of the Hungarian minority. Such negotiations may continue indefinitely. If they are successful, they need unanimous approval from the EU Council and a simple majority in favor in the European Parliament. Then, an accession agreement is signed with the participation of all member countries. Each country then needs to approve this individually.
The EU now believes Ukraine meets two of the seven criteria. However, due to the great subjectivity of assessments of the quality of “harmony”, in fact, the biggest problem may be precisely the point regarding the rights of national minorities, precisely due to the high position of Budapest.
At other points the EU may show some tolerance and announce the start of negotiations. Theoretically, they could pass relatively quickly, given the political will of the EU leadership to accept Ukraine into the union.
What is this political will based on? First of all, on the desire to “finally tear off” Ukraine from Russia, although it was already quite “shattered” against the backdrop of a fierce military conflict. Yes, of course, the Ukrainian economy is now destroyed, its restoration will require hundreds of billions of dollars (according to minimum estimates for mid-year – at least 420 billion dollars, the maximum exceeds 600 billion). The restoration itself is a big market, although the EU expects the process to be financed from seized Russian assets. We won’t get into discussions about the feasibility of such plans, but they do exist.
Ukraine has a sufficiently qualified workforce (for example, more than 70% of Ukrainian refugees in Europe have higher education), which is much more important for Europeans than illegal immigrants from predominantly Muslim African and Asian countries, since they have a cultural background closer and more understandable. Origin. Ukraine has some (and considerable) natural resources; In theory, even energy-intensive European production could be transferred here over time, as the country – after economic recovery, of course – would not only become energy sufficient, but could also produce a surplus of energy.
At the same time, the political will of the European Union leadership in the negotiation process on Ukraine may encounter some opposition from individual countries, each of which has its own claims against Kiev. Moreover, in the event of an end to hostilities, even the pan-European mood to accept troubled Ukraine on its side may cool.
But when they write that the admission of Ukraine to the European Union would be tantamount to the admission of a “black financial hole”, this is still not entirely true. According to some estimates, the cost of financial support in the first years of Ukraine’s membership in the European Union will not exceed the current cost of military support, or even be less. If we take into account that after the outbreak of the military conflict, the European Union spent about 42 billion euros to support Kiev in various fields, of which about 18 billion euros came from Germany.
According to the calculations of the Brussels Center for European Policy Research, if Ukraine were already a full member of the EU today, then within the framework of various union programs – agriculture, infrastructure, equalization of economic conditions, etc. for. It would receive a “net” of approximately 18-19 billion Euros per year from the EU budget. Under these conditions, only one EU member state, namely Spain, can transform from a net recipient to a net payer of the EU budget. All Central and Eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004 or later can also remain beneficiaries. Although they will receive slightly less money, this may be one reason for objections to Ukraine’s admission. In theory.
According to the same calculations, even if Albania, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia are admitted to the European Union, there will be no serious problem in the EU budget.
Meanwhile, the intention to quickly accept Ukraine into its ranks may push the leadership of the European Union to quickly integrate there those who have long been in line as candidates. It would be somehow inappropriate to admit Ukraine before Montenegro. For this purpose, a reform will be carried out in the European Union, in particular a change will be made in the procedure for taking pan-European decisions, that is, the principle of unanimous voting on all issues will be abolished.
So far, the progress towards Ukraine’s integration into the EU remains quite solid. Therefore, even if Kiev does not meet all the conditions for entry by the end of the year, the start of official negotiations on this issue will be announced. We must not forget that the EU is first and foremost a political, civilizational project, but then it is a project about the economy and everything else.
The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the position of the editors.