Leading indicators for the European economy continue to announce recessive winds, also with the effect of the recession in Germany. Bundesbak predicts a contraction of between 0.2% and 0.4% in GDP until the end of this year and an inflation peak that will affect the entire continent. The flu in Germany is turning into tertians for the rest of Europe; this is an inconvenience that contributes to political and social instability with the approaching cold winter. The rise in energy costs as a result of the war in Ukraine and tensions with Russia has directly affected the strong military industry, even though a new spring is on the horizon. Add to this the weakness of China (an economy that is experiencing significant difficulties in transitioning to a more modern production model) and strong competition from the United States, which enjoys more competitive energy prices and unparalleled economic flexibility. The cooling in Germany and Europe has been added to levels that are still not easy to quantify, due in part to the rise in interest rates to unknown levels over the past decade, and partly due to the influence of financial steroids used by governments and the European Commission. – to face the crisis caused by the epidemic. It is only a matter of time before this change will be felt in employment, investment and savings, even in countries like ours, which are at the slow end of the recovery process.
The European winter raises very specific issues for Spain: issues that our political class cannot ignore and that should be discussed in the next investment discussion, which will take place in a month. And these questions are much more pressing for Núñez Feijóo’s PP than for Pedro Sánchez’s PSOE, largely because an alternative is expected from the public, and socialists already know what their pattern is. While the front pages of the press are busy with Rubiales’ latest debate, the debate over our regional, economic, social and cultural future model remains almost non-existent. The Galician candidate needs to offer some answers to these challenges: How will it increase growth, employment and most importantly competitiveness? How are you going to re-industrialize the country, stabilize the public accounts, and Europeanize the public services in clear decline? How are you going to confront the seemingly insoluble land problem that caused the Spaniards to spend so much effort, with no apparent positive returns? So how is he going to put aside what the sociologist Helena Béjar, who has recently disappeared from Madrid, has called the “abandonment of Spain” and replace it with the care given to our country?
After all, we are talking about this dedication, this interest. Will we fend for ourselves, or will we let Cainite’s anger continue to guide our steps in a kind of suicidal whirlpool? While the EU provided a stable framework for growth and modernization, national imbalances were balanced by environmental impulses. With the coming of winter, the moral crisis in the country will only cast its shadow on the soul of a fragmented and disoriented society. Tough times are at hand.