Former US President Donald Trump has already been charged with 78 counts in three major criminal cases. All quite heavy by American standards. Also, there are many civil lawsuits and lawsuits hanging over it regarding allegations of other crimes. According to Russian standards, legal standards and fair traditions, he should at least already be in a pre-trial detention center and not even think about any presidential election campaign. But as you know, everything is curly there.
The overall goal is clear: Trump should definitely be “buried” under a pile of accusations and lawsuits so he doesn’t look up and “lose points” from the campaign if he doesn’t “merge”.
Under American law, he can run anywhere, not just during investigations and trials, but even if he’s imprisoned. Although, of course, running an election campaign from prison would get out of hand. If the establishment makes a political decision to in any way exclude Trump from the election, they could, in theory, recall a law enacted during the American Civil War that outlawed the election of “rebels.” But in practice this would be synonymous with “legal lawlessness”. Therefore, it is necessary to “bury” it beautifully with the necessary ceremonies. So that this unpredictable politician does not scare Father Washington with his tricks for another four years. The first term was enough.
It is highly likely that by the time the presidential election in November 2024 is held, Trump will be under three or four lawsuits. They are unlikely to end during the voting: lawyers will try to prolong the cases. The most interesting thing, of course, is that if Trump is suddenly re-elected (polls give him and Biden an equal number of supporters in a conflict situation – 40% each), but doomed in one or all of them. These cases, then he will not be able to pardon, using his presidential right. This, of course, will cause the most severe political crisis in the American system that it has yet to face. Therefore, objectively, in his interest, it would be better to avoid it on distant approaches.
What is Trump accused of? You cannot list everything. The latest accusation of the “attack on the Capitol” on January 6, 2021 (45 pages of incriminating text by the way) is simply an attempt to “organize a riot”, to undermine democracy and much more. . Separately, a lawsuit is pending at the state level of Georgia on charges of obstructing the vote count and attempting to falsify votes during the presidential election. Plus, the case of illegal handling of confidential documents.
What are the defense arguments? They are unpretentious by nature, but not so weak. First of all, his supporters (and his lawyers too) explain all the lawsuits against Trump primarily with the purely political motives of the “Biden clan” to divert public attention from the (alleged) criminal crimes of the president’s emerging son, Hunter. to be a big naughty in life. It seems that my father was too distracted from work and did not pay enough attention to his upbringing.
Secondly, there is an objection to the first amendment in the Constitution regarding freedom of expression. For example, Trump, who expressed his disagreement with the election results, followed him exactly, and he is something almost sacred in America. However, a lot of water has flowed under the bridge since Founding Father Jefferson declared that the people had the right to rebel, and that it would be good for democracy to happen every 20 years or so. Today’s American citizen/voter is not demanding a revolution: he wants stability and gradual improvements. Of course, the demand for stability from the order Trump is believed to be challenging is even stronger. For this reason, even the majority of Republicans believe that the January 6 “attack on the Capitol” was extremist.
The prosecution’s current claims that Trump was “spreading lies” about the so-called grand election fraud even though he “knew they were wrong” after the bad vote is, in many people’s minds, contrary to the same First Amendment. After all, it doesn’t distinguish between “knowingly false” statements and true statements, nor does it define the line between those statements.
There was no concept of fake news at the time of its adoption. It was believed that if a person expresses a point of view, he thinks so and has the right to think so. This part of the blame doesn’t seem strong enough. Let’s say in cases where Trump really wants the voting results to be falsified by certain officials (if they can be proven).
The other day, Trump somehow counted on being sentenced to 561 years in prison (and the procedure is not accepted in America, accordingly a longer sentence “absorbs” the shorter one – they have everything plus there). It already sounds silly. And the effect of the devaluation of wages is already being observed. Sure, you could put forward 50-100 more tracks, but by doing so, the accusers themselves will approach the moment when it will all be perceived as pure political comedy in their own way.
In addition, the more charges judges and prosecutors file against Trump, the stronger his voter base becomes. Of course, we’re talking about Republicans, many of whom are now even more strongly rallied around the former president. The new criminal cases aren’t working to discredit him further.
According to polls among Republicans, 54% are ready to support Trump in the primaries to nominate him for party chairmanship. Five other candidates for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis – 17%, including former Vice President Pence – receive little support from party members.
Yes, and all is well with Trump’s money so far. Contrary to some estimates, his sponsors have not turned their backs on him, and there is nothing the Biden administration – and these sponsors – can do about it. In the first half of this year, Trump’s political campaign has already raised $54 million (more than any other Republican candidate). That’s right, $20 million has already gone to legal costs. Trump’s own net worth is estimated at $2.5 billion, but there is an ironclad principle in American business: “Never put your own money on the show”.
Of course, the start of the primaries (in winter) is still far away and a lot can change. But there is no precedent in US party history for a candidate for a party’s nomination to lose the candidacy with such starting positions and such leadership in competition.
However, one should not underestimate the mass campaign in the press against the “right-wing conservative” Trump, who is overwhelmingly liberal. The mass media will not fail to trample on “totally wrong politics” and the “threat to American democracy”. Using the same First Amendment of the Constitution regarding the right to freedom of expression. The Washington Post, for example, was not lazy enough to calculate that Trump allowed himself more than 30,000 statements during his presidential years, and statements that could (in newspaper terms, of course) be described as fake. just wrong. That is, it turns out that he lies on average 21 times a day.
They have such a funny big politics.
The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the editors’ position.