Housing affordability is the most important socio-economic indicator. It gives an idea of the real and expected income of the household – this is the basis of the mortgage loan policy. It is witnessing labor migration – people are leaving depressed areas and trying to take root where there is the possibility of work and education. Finally, the construction industry is extremely important for the country’s economy as a whole. In this sense, residential construction supports the construction industry by creating a continuous demand for all product types, from building mixtures to paint and varnish products.
In 2022, Russia set a record in terms of housing commissioning – 102.7 million square meters. m This is an absolute record in the history of the country.
We will return to the structure of this indicator later. In the meantime, let me remind you that the average maturity of housing loans in the period from 2018 to 2023 increased by nine years to 24 years. At the same time, the average size of a mortgage loan in Moscow amounted to 8.4 million rubles for new buildings and 6.7 million rubles for secondary housing.
Let us now turn to the structure of the indicator for new construction. Rosstat data shows that Russians build as part of individual construction rather than contractors: 56% of homes built in 2022 belong to individual housing construction. During the year, the volume of deployments by population increased by 16.5%, by developers – by only 4.6%. As for 50 million square meters. m planted by investors, then 13 million in Moscow, 3.5 – in St. Petersburg, 5.7 – in the Krasnodar Territory, 3 million – in Tatarstan. In other words, we see a serious concentration of development projects in economically developed regions. The four regions mentioned account for almost half of all investments in residential construction. Using the example of Moscow, it is clear that the incomes of residents of the capital are somewhat exaggerated: increasing the mortgage term to 24 years indicates the desire of the parties to reduce the burden on the household to a reasonable limit. Obviously, after a while, developers will face limited active demand even in the capital.
How can housing be made more affordable? Today, it is not possible to talk about the reduction of construction costs. The most budgetary project in the history of the construction industry was, of course, the famous “Khrushchev”. But they did not solve the problem of providing housing for everyone in need. During the 25 years of their construction (from 1959 to 1985), 290 million square meters were built. m of this type of housing. Not to mention the quality parameters, a bit compared to today’s speed.
In this sense, it is more interesting to look at the second half of the new buildings, that is, the houses built within the scope of individual housing construction.
How do they compare favorably with the development projects of the “humanists”?
First of all, greater uniformity in the distribution of construction activity. In addition to the same leaders (Moscow and Leningrad regions, Krasnodar Territory), about a million square meters were built annually by residents of the Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, Chelyabinsk regions. Among the top 20 leaders were the Stavropol and Perm Territories, the Irkutsk and Orenburg Territories.
Secondly, a country house, despite all the amenities, is cheaper for a household. The average size of loans issued by Russian banks under the Rural Mortgage program is 2.3 million rubles.
A house with a garden plot is on average cheaper than a one-room apartment in any “millionaire”. But in terms of demographic and social sustainability, the house creates more comfortable living conditions for several generations.
Finally, statistics debunk the stereotype that young people do not want to live in rural areas. According to Rosreestr, the total volume of land transactions has increased by 86% since the start of preferential rural mortgages, and the population has built and put into operation about 300,000 buildings, the highest value since 2015. 75% of the lenders are married couples under the age of 40.
Is it possible to increase the tendency towards individual housing construction? Yes, if complex socio-economic decisions are made. For example, expanding the construction according to the approved projects. The truth is that a home built by a qualified contractor for a particular project is easier to consider as collateral, which helps banks establish risk management policies. More than 500 approved projects are published on the platform created by DOM.RF experts. A little co-financing from the government, for example within 1% of the cost of the loan, will accelerate the more active use of housing than proven projects. This will support the local construction industry in the regions.
I can responsibly say that in the near future there will not be cheap housing in big cities. And for this, prices should not be expected to fall. But the state can influence the provision of its own quality housing to our citizens. First of all, through the promotion of individual housing construction.
The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the editors’ position.