In light of Ukraine’s military advances, developments in the EU’s energy situation, and the way in which the social and economic impact of aggression has been mitigated, we can confirm that the war strategy is working, so there is no point in changing it. It is not time to engage in perverse dialogues with Putin, but to continue to help Ukraine decisively.
First, Western intelligence and U.S. and European military aid gave Ukraine a significant advantage over Russian capabilities, resulting in three major successes at the front. First, on April 2, 2022, Ukraine regained control of the entire Kyiv region, which has been a priority for Putin since the beginning of his aggression to take the capital. Second, the Ukrainian army liberated the Kharkiv region in the second week of September, and did so with an offensive that surprised the invaders and caused their chaotic retreat. Third, on 9 November, the Russian Army announced its withdrawal from Kherson, the only provincial capital they had occupied and was recaptured by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on 11 November, and shifted the front in this area to the waters of the Dnieper river. Thus, the Russian occupation, which took control of 27% of Ukraine’s territory (161,000 km2 of a total of 603,628 km2) in March 2022, was reduced to 14% (86,557 km2) by November 12, according to the Institute of the Russian Federation. War Study (ISW).
Secondly, the measures taken in Europe to solve the energy crisis caused by Putin’s aggression are successful despite serious difficulties. On the one hand, the European Council adopted the Regulation on gas storage on 27 June 2022, which sets the target to fill the reserves of this fuel by at least 85% by the end of 2022. This figure has been exceeded. by far, over 95% on Nov. 21. On the other hand, on December 2, the EU agreed to impose an upper limit of 60 euros on the price of Russian oil per barrel, as well as a full embargo on crude oil imported from Russia, excluding Hungary, to the community bloc. . This is intended to significantly reduce the Kremlin’s revenue, which is essential to financing the war and maintaining the global oil supply. On 14 December, the REPower EU Plan was approved, whose aim is to ensure supply, reduce dependency on Russia and promote ecological transition. Likewise, following the example of the “Iberian exception”, an upper limit of 180 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) was adopted on the gas price in the EU on 19 December.
Third, although the impact of war on the overall cost of living is high, it is also softening in the European Union. Inflation, mainly due to the increase in energy prices, was moderated by the policies in question and new agreements with other oil and gas suppliers. CPI fell in November for the first time since June 2021 in the euro area. In addition, the economic and social impact of inflation was offset by national welfare initiatives. But while this policy is correct and necessary, it would be much more beneficial for the EU to take these measures together, so to deal with the pandemic, progress should be made towards a European Assistance Plan for families and companies, as agreed. .
But even though the balance is positive, aggression persists and there are new challenges that need to be addressed. On the one hand, the European Union and Western allies must continue to send military aid to Ukraine, because the war effort necessary to repel bombings and retake the rest of the occupied territory requires more and better weapons than anti-aircraft systems and ammunition. to missiles, long-range tanks and warplanes, beyond the delivery of batteries patriotic.
On the other hand, the strategy of continuous bombing of critical infrastructures (energy, water) necessitates the delivery of more generators, heaters, fuel, thermal blankets and warm clothing, tanker trucks and bottled water in addition to the approaching winter. The European Union must therefore respond by sending a Winter Special Humanitarian Package to supplement existing humanitarian aid items.
Our union did not choose this aggression, but neither should it shy away from the challenge it poses. The EU should help Ukraine as much as possible, learn the lessons learned from the war and stand firm in the face of Putin’s pressure so that the whole world understands that these violations will not be tolerated, but respect for International Law is that inevitable rector of our time.
Ukraine’s victory is necessary not only to restore the international political order, but also to ensure the security of Europe and the West. The war should also be an incentive to build a true Defense Unit in line with the Strategic Compass proposed by the High Representative and Commission Vice-President Josep Borrell.