When I was predicting for the year going somewhere last year, I remember saying that Christmas predictions are kind of self-contained. Everyone does. They almost never happen, but after a year, as a rule, no one even remembers them: who guessed what about the ruble exchange rate or the price of a barrel of oil. Unless the predictions about who will win the elections in Russia come true. It’s just the easiest. However, I did not think that the forecast last December would not come true so much. And nobody thought. But in this plan itself, the assumption of the “failure” of the New Year’s horoscope is absolutely correct. So let’s continue. In the timid hope that it would be a full-fledged flight, according to their “most disgusting” predictions. According to the known principle (he just works hard), if you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans. So let’s listen…
The traditional “economic problems” are this time secondary even in their formulation. What will be the exchange rate of the ruble or the price of oil? Both of these are heavily dependent on the course of the military conflict in Ukraine, which will already have an impact on the global economy. Maybe there will be no price at all. Regardless… Or, during currency regulation, the Central Bank will actually introduce several rates: it will be an authority for coordinated export-import operations, and there will be “black” and “grey” market rates. . However, I do not believe yet that the current team in the government and the Central Bank will make a radical departure from the basic principles of the market economy in favor of military mobilization as long as he is at the head of economic policy. The President has yet to show such an intention. The relative resilience of the Russian economy to sanctions last year was thanks to a more or less functioning market.
Next year will probably be more difficult. The sanctions will have a cumulative effect. As spare parts stocks and imported equipment resources are exhausted, a lot will change depending on whether parallel imports can be established. Obviously, it will not be possible to quickly create our own replacement hi-techs.
The problem can be particularly acute in aviation, but it just isn’t there. Also, much will depend on the efforts of those who impose sanctions – how carefully they close the loopholes and how carefully they apply criminal secondary sanctions. There may be some scope for collusion, but on very private matters so far. Like the well-known “grain deal”: grain exports from Ukraine in exchange for concessions to Russian food and fertilizer exporters. Theoretically, we can encounter similar formats in other items of our exports, which play an important role in the global economy. It is possible that some (but not the most important) sanctions will be partially relaxed as the conflict freezes.
For a simple layman, as a rule, the figures for GDP growth or decline tell little. Will it “get worse” or “get better”? He decides according to his business whether there will be orders, volumes, sales. Will the state (and yourself) decrease, something to pay for education or a mortgage?
The latter has been extended, but this is more in favor of the construction complex (also works) than a specific mortgage lender. Actually dealing with rising prices for new buildings (at least a third in two years). The gradual deflating of the bubble in the real estate market would be in favor of curbing further price increases.
The most pessimistic forecast for GDP is a drop of 8% in the first quarter, followed by 2-4% for the year. The most optimistic is an average of zero growth per year. However, if you’re an employee of, say, a car dealership, it won’t do you much good if you don’t have anything to sell outside of Lada and the Chinese auto industry. Or if people in your city start saving money to go to restaurants and entertainment venues and you work there. Or in the mall and closed. By the way, I think the current situation will only accelerate the death of giant shopping malls as a phenomenon. It goes anywhere in the world regardless of any SVO. People started to buy more things online. In our case, the cinemas in the mall are also empty.
In the absence of new shocks (although it’s hard to find anything even more shocking), inflation will not rise but fall. Contrary to traditional “peacetime” trends, the less prosperous segments of the population will this time suffer less than the middle class and above. The former is less dependent on imports, which would become much more expensive if partially restarted. However, the price of home-cooked food, where the poor spend half or more of their income, will not increase much. In addition, authorities will continue targeted support for low income earners next year, there is still money for it. I believe the ruble will not fall below 100 per dollar, it will stabilize around 70-80 as long as current trends continue.
Trends in the socio-political sphere, dictated by the characteristics of the moment, will continue. Military special operations time is not the time to dissolve. It is difficult to predict what our deputies will bring about the new bans, but 1937 will not come completely instead of 2023.
In addition, let us recall the unforgettable Karamzin: the cruelty of laws is compensated by the fact that their implementation is not mandatory. At the same time, there are many things to “pull oneself up to be disciplined” in “special operations time” conditions. The “joint effort” situation partially contributes to this. Despite….
Will borders be closed? There are some indications, some are to be expected. With the security forces largely deprived of their right to travel, it was clear that they could not be alone for long. And now the moment – and opportunity – has come. I am confident that there will be increasing challenges in terms of freedom of travel, particularly to “non-hostile countries”, especially for government agencies and employees of government agencies. Primarily for an average link and above. But these workers will also be offended. And resentment will pass to subordinates. Most likely, the initiative for this part will be launched “on the ground” at work and regional authorities. At the federal level, it will be objectively necessary to strengthen the effectiveness of the military registration, which will inevitably require not only its digitization, but also its association with the right to leave the country for those responsible for the military (partial mobilization has shown this). service one way or another. So far, I personally do not believe (I want to be mistaken) to literally download “Iron Curtain”. But the Russian guards are greatly assisted in this and part of the work is done by ex-Western partners for them, and most of them do not want to see either the “good” Russians, let alone the “bad” Russians. We seem to have left this direction for a long time.
On the main subject. Will the NWO end in 2023? After an attempt at a “decisive offensive” in the spring and depending on its consequences, I have seen predictions that the conflict will move into a “frozen” phase, which is better than active large-scale military operations. Maybe better, but definitely longer. Such predictions seem very optimistic to me. To be honest, the end of hostilities in Ukraine in 2023 – even the freezing of a ceasefire – is unlikely. Not to mention the peace that lasts only when it’s over when it’s convenient for both parties. Otherwise, this is not peace, but a respite before the next inevitable conflict (see, for example, the history of the Karabakh conflict). But what can “regulate both sides” here? Unanswered.
The West will continue – on the rise – to supply Ukraine with weapons. There will also be money – it’s a political decision, not an economic one. And no matter how much you pay, you don’t overpay.
However, if it concerns weapons, then according to Western calculations, the Armed Forces of Ukraine conditionally “takes the Crimea”, but not at such volumes and levels, but not at an exhausting level, exactly as necessary to maintain resistance. Russian troops, – I think they see it there. Sooner or later, but later on, the deployment of a military contingent, which of course will be called peacekeeping, which begins with the establishment of a “no-fly zone” in the whole of Ukraine or in the western part of the NATO (or individual countries, but not the Americans). Will it already be in 2023? Probably, yes, although unlikely. Everything will depend on the situation on the battlefield. Politically, the West is not ready for Kiev’s defeat, but it apparently does not have a very good idea of what its “victory” and, by extension, the “desired defeat of Moscow” might look like. – so that it doesn’t cover the rest of the world with a copper basin.
I’d like to be particularly wrong on this final, sadly dreary part of this pre-New Year’s prediction, which isn’t New Year’s at all. Or then next year will not be 2023, but immediately 2033. When will everything be fine. And that’s exactly what it will be. As is known from the history of our country, it has always had a glorious past, a dazzlingly beautiful future, and only the gloomy present has sometimes greatly troubled him with “temporary difficulties”.
The author expresses his personal opinion, which may not coincide with the editors’ position.