The transformation of politics into a pseudoscience, thanks to the invasion of political scientists, supports its transformation into the last bastion of convoluted language. Alberto Núñez Feijóo is the latest victim of a carousel of impossible tasks. Its main function should consist of ascending to the head of the Government with the resources and partners that set the goal in question. But he needs to dialogue with the PSOE, abandon Vox, de-radicalize the PP, establish diplomatic relations with Pedro Sánchez, win the war in Ukraine (just to see if they’re still careful).
In the colloquial language of political scientists before they landed, PP cannot claim to have signed Messi. The acclaimed one did not take part in the most adventurous plans, the rotting side demanded a shake-up. By removing the popular ones from the UCI, he will get more than fulfillment and it is possible to stick to this minimum realism if it falls to the next generals. A strong premise must be imposed before overloading a victim rather than a candidate. Feijoo is not enough.
People campaign in poetry and rule in prose, but math decides the choices. How not to wake up with laughter at the creative commentary of the autonomous communities of Castilla y León by experts who have sworn to repeat elections or who have scrupulously abstained from the PSOE. The numbers set PP/Vox, but it’s a tradition for those who feel superior to correct the electorate. It is an unforgivable betrayal in a democracy as much as it is impossible in a dictatorship, especially when the voter has given up on their usual game.
The first truth of general elections is that no candidate can win by an absolute majority. If it were not for the impossibility of calculation, they would not have achieved that hegemony one by one. Sánchez and Feijóo not so much. The second premise suggests that neither the PP nor the PSOE would have enough support to govern alone, except for a rare unanimous national disaster.
Majority quorum to use one of these vague terms of political language that resulted in supporting the descent of populism is not within the reach of Sánchez and Feijóo, sorry to personalize it. And so you get the Russian salad, the fruit cocktail, the traffic light government, or what a political scientist puts it. As with Lego pieces, the architecture of the pacts cannot be stretched definitively without demolishing the building. So the key question is how many MPs are needed by the parties currently aligned in PP/Vox and PSOE/Podemos (possibly under another name) to win the competition.
The PP/PSOE coalition government, which is also on Feijóo’s broad shoulders, should be excluded from the start. Firstly, because you will never see hundreds of popular MPs supporting a head of the socialist government. This has very rarely happened with the Basque manager of Patxi López, where ETA is involved. The only hypothesis that would widen this stuck window would be Vox’s sorpasso to PP, which won’t happen and its consequences are too traumatic to even consider on paper. And for the record, Vox is a stronger party than PP today.
Second, against the Grosse Coalition, if the PSOE returns to vote for a PP president after the disastrous experience with Rajoy, then the Socialists deserve to lose the election and there will be no more talk. Hopeful can resort to a practical experiment. At the beginning of the campaign, demand that the two parties still in the majority make a commitment to form a concentration government in which the party with the most votes holds the presidency. They will receive avalanches of “sufficient majority”, “variable geometries” or “betrayal of the will of the electorate”, but regardless of the outcome, it will never be a confirmation of the supreme agreement.
And it makes sense, because it’s hard to imagine that PP/PSOE’s hundred MPs are a few seats away from the PSOE/PP result, gracefully handing over La Moncloa when there are options to win by joining a third party. in dispute. Indeed, the numbers indicate with remarkable solvency that the PP/Vox total is above PSOE/Podemos, or whatever it’s called. But the enigma about the adequacy of support is measured by just another number, 175 deputies representing half of the legislature.
This article is poorly written because it has exhausted its central data. The magic number that the government will give to PP/Vox or PSOE/Podemos in the next elections has been determined as 165 deputies. Sánchez rules with less than ten, but still has more pact flexibility. The key is in this number. Feijóo can find experts who, for a reasonable price, will convince him that he can settle in La Moncloa alone. It’s fiction, but the candidate’s self-deception only leads to frustration when he fails to convey this fabrication to the electorate.