The world faces a real risk from a major volcanic eruption, with potential ripple effects on global supply chains, climate, and food security. This warning comes from researchers at the Center for Existential Risk Studies (CSER) at the University of Cambridge and colleagues at the University of Birmingham.
In an article for Nature, the scientists challenge a common belief that the danger from huge volcanic blasts is low. They condemn the lack of sustained government funding for monitoring and readiness to respond to volcanic threats.
The researchers argue that there are measures that can reduce the impact of a volcanic disaster. These range from improved surveillance to better public education, and even research into how magma behaves. Yet they emphasize that the resources available are limited.
“Ice-core data show recurring eruption patterns,” notes CSER researcher Lara Mani, a co-author who specializes in global risk. “There is about a one-in-six chance of a magnitude seven eruption within the next century. That’s effectively rolling the dice.”
Mani warns that massive eruptions have historically driven abrupt climate shifts and the fall of civilizations. He draws a parallel between the risk of a colossal volcanic event and a meteor impact, saying that while the climatic consequences would be similar, the odds of a volcanic catastrophe are far greater than the combined chance of asteroid or comet collisions.
A lot of money for asteroids, none for volcanoes
Mani argues that hundreds of millions of dollars are spent each year on detecting asteroid threats, while funding and global coordination to prevent major eruptions remain severely lacking. “This must change soon. We are systemically underestimating the risk volcanoes pose to our communities.”
The Tonga eruption in January, one of the largest recorded, is used as a case study. The researchers contend that if the eruption had lasted longer, released more ash and gas, or hit regions with critical infrastructure like the Mediterranean, the consequences could have been far worse.
“The Tonga event was a volcanic analogue to a large asteroid impact and should serve as a wake-up call,” Mani says.
CSER researchers point to recent work that estimates eruption frequency by tracking trace sulfur increases in ancient ice cores. They report that an eruption ten to a hundred times larger than the Tonga event occurs about every 625 years, twice as frequent as earlier estimates suggested.
“The last magnitude seven eruption occurred in 1815, in Indonesia,” adds Dr. Cassidy, a volcano expert who collaborates with CSER and is linked to the University of Birmingham.
An estimated 100,000 people were affected locally, and global temperatures dropped by about one degree Celsius. Such events have historically led to crop failures, social unrest, and even widespread epidemics linked to severe weather patterns.
Dr. Cassidy notes that today the world supports eight times more people and far greater trade networks, which could amplify vulnerability to a major volcanic upheaval. The financial losses from a planet-changing eruption would be enormous, comparable to disruptions seen during the last global health crisis.
Mani and Cassidy outline practical steps to improve prediction and management of large eruptions and to lessen damage from more frequent, smaller events.
Not enough instruments
The recommended steps include pinpointing risks with greater precision. Only a handful of the 97 identified large eruptions in the past 60,000 years are mapped with high confidence on the Volcanic Explosivity Index. This suggests there may be many dangerous volcanoes around the world whose potential has not been fully recognized.
Cassidy stresses the lack of knowledge about some regions, particularly in Southeast Asia, where sea and lake core research is scarce. He emphasizes that volcanoes can lie dormant for long periods before suddenly delivering devastating activity.
Experts call for better monitoring. Since 1950, only about 27% of eruptions have had a seismometer nearby, and only a portion of that data has been integrated into global volcanic databases.
Mani argues that a satellite dedicated to volcano monitoring would offer essential, timely imagery. He also notes that private satellite firms sometimes fill gaps when public funding is thin.
The researchers also advocate further work on geoengineering approaches to counteract aerosols from huge eruptions that could trigger a volcanic winter. They suggest investigating strategies to influence magma pockets in active systems, acknowledging that it might seem counterintuitive but sharing a historical analogy, such as asteroid deflection efforts, to illustrate how science can evolve.
Acknowledgments are drawn from Nature’s coverage and related studies. These reflections highlight the urgency of bolstering detection, understanding, and response to volcanic threats for the safety of communities worldwide.