This Thursday marks the first anniversary of the Scholz era. On December 8, 2021, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) leader Olaf Scholz was sworn in as Germany’s first social democratic chancellor since the late Angela Merkel. His government formed a three-party coalition—SPD, Greens, and Free Democrats—the first of its kind at the federal level in the history of the Federal Republic. After long negotiations, the parties reached a social-liberal agreement at the end of November the previous year, setting the course for the new administration.
Scholz used the first anniversary of his government to signal a plan to seek re-election in the next federal vote, scheduled for 2025, should political progress not materialize. He stated that he aimed to ensure the coalition remains strong enough to govern again, speaking to major media outlets in a featured interview published on Thursday.
Yet the optimism surrounding Scholz’s tenure faces real-world pressures. The administration, formed to address the pandemic’s immediate effects, encountered a lull in momentum. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 introduced a geopolitical shock with broad economic consequences for Germany, a country known for its deep energy ties and robust industrial base. The abrupt energy squeeze, coupled with inflation and a looming recession, created what observers describe as a fragile policy environment for the coalition.
loss of popularity
These strains are reflected in public opinion and voting intentions. The three governing parties, notably the SPD and the FDP, have ceded ground in recent surveys. If an election were held today, the CDU-CSU union would likely lead with around 30% of the vote, while the far-right AfD could hover around 14–15%. The shift in support underscores the challenge for the Scholz government as it negotiates a difficult balance between energy security, economic resilience, and social expectations.
A recent poll conducted for the Scholz coalition’s public broadcasting partner suggested a cautious mood among citizens. Only about 28% expressed satisfaction with the government’s performance, while a sizable portion indicated dissatisfaction, with many voters voicing concerns about the pace and effectiveness of policy responses. Scholz’s personal approval rating hovered in the mid-30s, illustrating the ongoing struggle to translate coalition gains into broad public confidence.
Main challenges
The government has outlined a strategy focused on enduring the winter and supporting Ukraine in its defense against aggression, while also injecting new energy into the economy. This includes accelerating the modernization of energy supply and advancing renewable technologies to reduce dependence on imports. The broader aim is to stabilize growth and shield households from continued price pressures, even as the energy landscape evolves.
In the short and medium term, Germany faces a set of intertwined challenges. The country must navigate a period of reduced access to traditional energy sources, with pipelines previously supplying gas facing disruptions. The German economic model—heavily reliant on energy-intensive industry and a strong export sector—needs recalibration to maintain competitiveness while sustaining social protections. The path forward involves balancing industrial strength with a responsible transition toward more sustainable energy and broader resilience in supply chains.
Since the beginning of the current crisis, defense planning has moved into a central role. The government announced substantial investments in defense and security, signaling a long-term shift in national priorities. Berlin has pledged significant funding for modern weapons and equipment in partnership with allies, reflecting a broader commitment to NATO and regional security amid tense geopolitical dynamics.
Scholz has captured the moment with a coined phrase describing the era: Zeitwende, or a turning point in history. Germany stands at a pivotal crossroads, navigating a period that many compare to the transformative years around the fall of the Berlin Wall and the reunification process. The coming years will test the resilience of the coalition, the strength of Germany’s economy, and the country’s capacity to chart a steady course through upheaval.