American researchers have provided evidence that the hot hand in basketball is real, supported by a study published in a peer-reviewed journal.
For years, basketball fans and players debated whether a player could enter a hot hand state, hitting a string of successful shots in rapid succession. Many coaches, commentators, and scientists doubted the idea, arguing that streaks could be explained by luck alone, much like a coin landing on the same side several times. Yet the concept remains a staple of basketball culture, even appearing in popular video games where a streak lights up the screen after consecutive points. The fascination resurfaces whenever a standout run occurs, such as Stephen Curry’s impressive training streak in recent seasons.
A team led by Konstantinos Pelecrinis at the University of Pittsburgh undertook a rigorous statistical examination to determine whether a true warm-up effect exists in real game conditions. Prior research often focused on single shot types, such as free throws or threes. But in actual play, sequences are varied and can involve many factors beyond a single shot type.
To capture the complexity of game situations, the researchers built a statistical model that considers multiple variables: who shoots, the distance to the basket, the shot type, proximity of the nearest defender, the identity of the closest defender, whether a pass preceded the attempt, and more. The advancement in basketball analytics in the United States made it possible to analyze vast numbers of games without watching every shot in real time.
With this model, it becomes possible to estimate the likelihood of success for any given shot sequence. By comparing the actual shooting percentage during a streak with the model’s predicted percentage for the same game situations, researchers can assess whether a hot hand effect is present. For example, if a player faces a situation in which the model predicts a 46 percent success rate but the player shoots at a 55 percent rate during a streak, this would be consistent with a hot hand phenomenon.
In their analysis, the study examined the games of 153 players who had taken at least 1,000 shots across the 2013-14 and 2014-15 seasons. Streaks were evaluated after one, two, three, and four consecutive makes. When considering all players together, the chance of making a third shot after two makes was about 1.9 percent lower than the model predicted, indicating a cold hand effect on average. Still, individual players showed varied patterns, and some displayed clear warm-up benefits within certain sequences.
When viewed at the level of individual players, a different picture emerges. The analysis identified that a subset of players exhibited statistically significant streaks where their actual performance diverged from model expectations. Across the group of thirty players who stood out in this way, average gains were observed on the third attempt and continued on the fourth and fifth attempts, suggesting a measurable warm hand in some individuals.
Researchers caution that possessing a warm hand does not guarantee success from any spot on the court. The phenomenon often appears among players whose responsibilities do not center on long-range shooting. The team proposed that a productive pattern may arise when a player scans the defense for favorable opportunities, identifies them, and repeatedly targets these options until fatigue or defensive adjustments intervene. For instance, identifying a weaker defender and exploiting that matchup could drive a successful run in a specific area of the court.
Experts emphasize that the warm hand would not be identical to the fans’ notion of a blazing fire of infallible shooting. Rather, it may reflect players’ ability to find and capitalize on advantageous opponents or situations during a sequence, rather than a sudden supernatural boost of skill.
The researchers do not claim to close the discussion on hot hands, but they hope that their approach will stimulate further studies and more nuanced analyses of how players perform in streaks. Beyond academic interest, the methodology could help coaches recognize and cultivate streak-aware decision-making in players, translating insights from data into practical training and strategy on the court.