Good news for consumer confidence in the retail sector and for early-year sentiment in economies watching household spending. The monthly index from the Center for Sociological Studies shows a continuation of cautious optimism as the year begins, marking a positive shift for a third consecutive month. The CIS index, updated every month, reflects Spaniards’ intentions to spend rising again in January, reaching a level not seen since last spring. While the index dipped previously during a cautious period and ahead of anticipated economic challenges, January’s reading indicates that consumer mood has regained some traction compared with the prior year’s levels.
In January 2022, CIS reported the assessment of the current situation at 73.6 and expectations for the coming months at 105.1. The latest readings show figures around 60.2 for the present situation and 85.8 for the outlook. The CIS explains this gap through a detailed analysis of how the index captures perceptions of macroeconomic conditions, local labor markets, and household finances, which have remained softer than a year ago.
Despite the softer numbers, the momentum over the last several months remains constructive. Overall, the index sits around 73 points, about five points above December and nearly 20 points higher than the low reached in March of the previous year. This signals a month-on-month improvement as households reassess their finances and job prospects, with the sense that the same three domains—current conditions, home finances, and the labor market—are likely to keep moving toward recovery through the near term.
Thus, the January read suggests progress relative to earlier months. Assessments of the current economic situation, household finances, and the job market show improvement, and there is a broadly shared expectation that these three areas will continue on a path of stabilization and gradual recovery in the months ahead.
Optimism with savings and interest rates
“The evolution of expectations around prices, interest rates, household savings opportunities, and durable goods purchases mirrors the pattern seen in the indices discussed so far,” explains the lead analyst on the CIS project. Between January and December, savings expectations and consumption outlooks rose by 2.4 and 3.1 points, respectively, while the sense that interest rates will move higher slipped by 2.6 points. The overall trend suggests households are adapting to evolving financial conditions and adjusting their spending plans accordingly.
The inflation forecast remains a factor of concern, with consumers showing a cautious stance about price changes. The latest CIS survey indicates a slight uptick in price anxiety compared with December, even as months improve overall sentiment. In the broader macroeconomic picture, the indicators point to a year with slower momentum after a stronger late-year performance. The economy faced a softer start to the year, with January tracking showing a cost environment that underscored lingering price pressures and policy considerations.
Across the macroeconomic landscape, the mixed signals are clear: growth last year provided some momentum, but the most recent quarter hints at a softer trajectory for the current year. Retail and consumer expectations remain a barometer of how households respond to prices, wages, and financing conditions as they navigate evolving economic realities.