The United States president, Joe Biden, approved in March a highly classified strategic nuclear plan that, for the first time, shifts Washington’s deterrence posture toward the rapid expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal. The New York Times reported this on Tuesday. The roadmap also aims to prepare the United States for potential nuclear challenges coordinated by China, Russia, and North Korea, according to the newspaper. After the report appeared, the White House said the reorientation of the plan does not target a single threat or a single country, while Beijing stated it is gravely concerned and noted that its nuclear arsenal is not on par with the United States’.
The document disclosed by the Times is updated roughly every four years and is so tightly classified that there are no electronic copies; only a small number of printed copies sit with a handful of national security officials and Pentagon commanders. The newspaper noted that the White House plans to brief Congress before Biden leaves office following the November elections.
The strategic plan examines in detail whether the country is ready to confront nuclear crises or a mix of nuclear and non-nuclear threats. The paper recalls that in the past the idea that American adversaries might coordinate nuclear threats to overwhelm the U.S. arsenal seemed remote, but it explained that an emergent partnership between Russia and China and the conventional weapons that North Korea and Iran are providing to Russia for the war in Ukraine have altered Washington’s thinking.
Nuclear Ambition
The shift is also tied to China’s nuclear ambitions. Nuclear expansion is progressing faster than U.S. intelligence officials anticipated two years ago, driven by President Xi Jinping’s determination to match or surpass the size of Washington’s and Moscow’s arsenals.
In October last year, the Pentagon noted that China had about 500 nuclear warheads in May 2023, a figure set to exceed earlier projections, and that by 2030 it could reach 1,000. Its annual report on China’s military power, prepared by the Department of Defense for congressional oversight, estimated that the arsenal would continue growing through 2035, in line with the goal of keeping the modernization of its army essentially complete by then.
The country’s military strategy also highlights its belief in an unlimited partnership with Russia as essential for advancing its rise as a major power.
The Times pointed out that Washington also worries about stalled talks with China on improving nuclear security. There was an exchange between the two countries last autumn, but Beijing has suggested that there is no interest in continuing the discussion, according to the report.
A Pretext, from Beijing
The revelation did not sit well with Beijing. A spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, Mao Ning, described the idea that China poses a nuclear threat as a pretext used by the United States to evade disarmament responsibilities, expand its arsenal, and gain strategic advantage.
Mao stated that the United States holds the largest and most advanced nuclear stockpile and adheres to a deterrence policy based on first use. Meanwhile, China adheres to a self‑defense nuclear strategy, keeping its forces at a minimal level and not seeking a nuclear arms race with any country.