The regional elections in Hesse highlighted a strong showing for the ruling conservative bloc, reinforcing the dominance of Germany’s largest economic region while signaling continued support for center-right leadership. In contrast, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) faced its weakest results to date, and one of its coalition partners, the Greens, managed to protect its position. The Free Democrats (FDP), a junior partner in Berlin’s tripartite coalition, failed to secure seats in the Bavarian parliament for the first time in years.
In Bavaria, Scholz’s Social Democrats endured a stinging setback, capturing only around 8.5 percent of the vote according to estimates by the state broadcaster ZDF, placing them last among the parties represented in the Munich regional assembly. The Christian Social Union (CSU) remained the dominant force, led by Prime Minister Markus Söder, though its share slipped slightly to just under 37 percent. The right-leaning Free Voters coalition partners in Munich rose to about 14 percent, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) reached roughly 15 percent. Taken together, the results show a consolidating right-wing bloc and stronger presence of more radical factions within the regional landscape (Source: regional election tallies 2024).
Hesse also confirmed the CDU as the leading opposition force on the national scene, sustaining a solid share around 34.5 percent. The AfD held about 16 percent, and the Greens, who had been the parliamentary partners to the outgoing conservative government, finished around 15.5 percent. The Greens’ vote declined by about four points, placing them just above the SPD, whose trajectory in these regional contests did not meet expectations tied to interior policy initiatives and a proposed cabinet appointment. This reflects broader sentiment about performance and party leadership at the state level (Source: regional results report 2024).
Stand up for right-wing populism
The Free Electors’ showing in Bavaria is seen as a personal achievement for leader Hubert Aiwanger. While they no longer hold an absolute majority, they became a governing partner to the CSU in what many observers called a pivotal shift for a regional force that has expanded its influence to other states. Söder’s confidence grew as coalition dynamics shifted, balancing the need to keep the AfD at a distance within the broader parliamentary spectrum. The Free Electors are now a recognized regional player aiming to expand beyond Bavaria and potentially influence national-level coalitions in future contests. This expansion aligns with a broader trend of regional parties seeking roles beyond their traditional strongholds (Source: election analysis, 2024).
Aiwanger, who also serves as the economy minister for Bavaria, managed to endure a controversy rooted in an anti-Semitic pamphlet from his youth reportedly authored by his brother. Despite the scandal, his position remained intact, underscoring the durability of his party’s local support and the electorate’s willingness to separate personal issues from policy judgment in a regional context (Source: regional election reportage).
Analysts anticipate that the Free Electors could push for a broader national presence and possibly participate in forming a future Bundestag coalition. Their anti-immigration rhetoric mirrors lines heard from the AfD, but their likelihood of joining a government at the federal level is tempered by their current regional strength and the CSU-CDU bloc’s ongoing dominance. Friedrich Merz’s shift to the right further shapes the conservative spectrum in national politics, signaling a departure from the era of Angela Merkel’s leadership (Source: political commentary, 2024).
Double shock to the chancellor’s coalition
Both Bavaria and Hesse produced results that surprised no one familiar with the trend lines, yet they arrive at a critical moment for Berlin’s ruling coalition. Scholz’s SPD, alongside its Greens partners and the FDP, faces ongoing friction and mutual blockades as they attempt to advance a broad agenda. Key environmental and energy initiatives, particularly those advancing renewable energy projects and addressing the energy crisis linked to the war in Ukraine, frequently encounter resistance within the coalition framework, slowing progress in Parliament (Source: electoral analysis, 2024).
The Greens managed to salvage some credibility by retaining second place in Bavaria and keeping their chances alive for a possible coalition in Hesse. The SPD, however, fell to historic lows across the region. The FDP, traditionally the fiscally conservative voice in the coalition, failed to clear the 5 percent hurdle in Bavaria and barely met the threshold in Hesse, reflecting ongoing challenges in maintaining broad-based parliamentary support (Source: political assessment, 2024).