The toy industry entered the final campaign phase with high expectations to offset the year’s sales losses, yet the plan did not deliver the hoped-for momentum in the last weeks of the year. A setback for 2022 became clear, as the market contracted. In value terms, the year closed down by 3.8%, with volumes down 5.2%. Behind this drop lie factors such as household purchasing power weakness and a steadily low birth rate.
After several years shaped by the pandemic, disrupted supply chains, rising costs, and store oversupply, 2023 did not mark a full recovery for the toy sector. In a climate of uncertainty driven by conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza and rising global inflation, sales were hit by families facing tighter budgets. The ongoing low birth rate also did little to lift market momentum.
All of this became evident in the just-ended year, when business activity stayed consistently below the level of the previous year. Yet, there was cautious optimism for a rebound during the Christmas period, since October through December accounts for about 60% of annual sales. Still, expectations were not met.
Circana, a firm that analyzes consumer behavior, reported that only the Christmas week showed positive results. Other periods, including Reyes, lagged behind the prior campaign. Taken together, the annual picture shows a 3.8% drop in value, translating to roughly 40 million euros less than the typical baseline of 1,000. Quantities fell 5.2%, with nearly 3 million fewer units leaving the market and an ending stock balance around 57 million.
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With national market trends in hand, the sector waited for export results, which also performed weakly over the year. Yet, José Antonio Pastor, general manager of the Spanish Association of Toy Manufacturers (AEFJ), expressed guarded optimism that export forecasts would not be severely altered by the period’s outcome: “Before the last campaign stretch, companies had already fulfilled orders. The only thing unlikely to happen is a repeat of this year’s pattern.” In practical terms, officials estimate a roughly 3% decline in business volume, equating to about 1.6 billion euros.
Pastor noted that the year’s hope centers on reducing excess store stock and adding some early-year momentum. He also acknowledged the ongoing headwinds—wars, higher mortgage costs, and a persistently low birth rate—that dampen brightness for a quick turnaround.
Preschool and construction categories led the sales drive in the just-closed campaign, according to Circana surveys. Electronic toys and interactive dolls, especially robots and pet devices, also posted strong results. Classic puzzle games found an audience alongside card games, while doll sales fell globally, with mannequins still showing strong demand. Action figures struggled due to fewer TV and movie licenses available last year. These patterns provide a useful snapshot for Canadian and U.S. buyers and retailers seeking to align inventories with consumer appetite in the near term.