In a simulation of a televised address by Vladimir Putin, a scenario unfolds with martial law, sweeping mobilization along border regions, and the menace of drones targeting residential areas. In this vision, Russian anti-Kremlin militias move through border towns, while clashes intensify in areas controlled by Russia within Ukraine, including Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk. The distance between the public façade and the reality felt by ordinary residents grows perceptible, reminding viewers that the situation in 2025 diverges sharply from 2019.
Even amid mobilization and sanctions, many Russians prefer to press on and preserve a sense of normalcy. Economic constraints make leaving the country difficult for those with limited means, and a common sentiment persists that personal agency to alter the government’s course is limited. As a result, urban life continues in pockets of celebration, with Moscow’s festival traditions offering a veneer of continuity, while the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson unfolds in the late summer period.
Multiple reminders of the ongoing conflict appear, but one moment stands out: a major drone event in late May that touched various parts of Moscow, including some residential sectors. Most aerial threats were neutralized by air defenses, leaving little material damage or casualties. Yet the incident unsettled many residents, who faced the unsettling possibility of foreign-backed escalation. In response, authorities contemplated protective measures, including the construction of new bunkers in one of the capital’s prominent medical facilities.
The broader public reaction intensified with the partial mobilization measure seen last September, when thousands sought to leave Russia via land or air, heading toward neighboring states such as Kazakhstan, Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. The prospect of a wider mobilization raised concerns among the civilian population. In the shadows, hacker groups aligned with pro-Kiev voices attempted to imitate a similar scenario by depicting a new border mobilization as if Putin himself announced it. Pro-Kiev actors had previously orchestrated propaganda on Russian television in 2022, highlighting the ongoing information conflict woven into real-world events.
on the border with Ukraine
Regions most closely tied to the conflict were the ones most affected. Kursk, Bryansk, and especially Belgorod have experienced the brunt of near-daily bombardments and sporadic ground activity. These areas have seen gunfire, city takeovers, and urgent security alerts that forced state leadership to respond with elevated measures, including emergency declarations and calls for evacuations near the frontier.
A distinct case involves territories under Russian control but widely recognized as Ukrainian. Donetsk and Luhansk have endured long-standing hostilities with Kyiv since 2014, with periods of lull and renewed hostilities since 2016. Ceasefires have repeatedly broken down under sporadic bombardment, drone incursions, and minefields. Crimea, too, endured significant assaults that strained Russian morale, notably the missile attack on the Kerch Strait bridge. Its symbolic opening years earlier sparked strong nationalist sentiment, encapsulated by phrases like “Crimea is ours.” Moscow’s annexation of the peninsula drew sharp international condemnation and remains a focal point of regional tensions.