During last year’s Black Friday, AECOC, the association of manufacturers and distributors, reported that 64% of surveyed consumers planned to take advantage of the event. In reality, 24% said they would use the discounts to begin Christmas shopping early. As the year turns toward the peak consumption period, this year’s data shows a slight drop in planned Black Friday purchases to 57%, while 47% indicate they intend to start Christmas buying sooner. Retailers anticipate two months of steadier sales, though smaller merchants feel less confident about the outlook.
Analysts note that buyers are edging toward earlier spending, aiming to offset rising costs for groceries, materials, and mortgages. Marta Munne, head of studies at AECOC Shopperview, explains that rising living costs are a primary driver behind this shift. Christmas remains a major spending category, but many households will need to rationalize expenses and adapt gift choices, possibly leveraging Black Friday to stretch budgets. Munne emphasizes that this spending is often a transfer of prior expenditure, not new incremental spending.
Comertia, the Catalan Family Retail Businesses Association, observes that Black Friday has evolved into a key campaign for the year. David Sánchez Farrán notes both sides of the coin: more in-store and online traffic translates to stronger short-term sales, but there can be weaker sales in the pre- and post-Black Friday windows. The takeaway is a year of stability in the core months, with price pressures pushing a higher share of cash flow into November and December, followed by a stronger January driven by winter promotions.
As Sánchez Farrán puts it, the 2023 pattern is one of stability and transition: there will be more cash in households, but largely due to higher prices rather than increased purchasing power. November could look solid, December should hold steady thanks to gift purchases, and January could bounce back with winter sales.
Neither savings nor consumer loans
José Luis Nueno, an IESE professor who studies consumer behavior, notes a strong inclination to start Christmas shopping early. Consumers who depleted savings during the pandemic and who avoided taking on new loans indicate a shift away from debt and toward planned purchases. The overall mood is pragmatic rather than festive; people expect to buy smaller-ticket items as job growth continues but wage levels remain uneven.
A large-scale retailer manager, preferring anonymity, echoes a measured outlook: inflation appears more controlled than last year, there is no flood of optimism, but a cautious optimism persists. The trade sector remains sensitive to a range of variables, yet the forecast remains positive. This year’s Black Friday is expected to perform well without losing momentum in the first half of December.
A Christmas of Normalcy
The campaign season has begun with a sense of prudence and gradual recovery. A top executive responsible for toys and large stores described a calmer campaign compared with previous years, following waves of cost pressures and material shortages. Recent statements indicate that this year’s Christmas could be characterized by steadier growth rather than dramatic surges, with a focus on solid performance and brand leadership in the toy category. In Catalonia, hiring to support the campaign is comparable to pre-pandemic levels, underscoring confidence in regional demand.
Small businesses face a different reality, balancing expectations with limited pricing power. The Spanish Trade Confederation notes that discounts are unlikely to be deep, while overall sales are not expected to surge as they did in peak years. The president of PIMEComerç remarks that global tensions influence consumer sentiment, shaping how people spend. Still, the general sentiment remains optimistic: will this be a wonderful Christmas? Not necessarily spectacular, but certainly a good one.