Spain and Portugal have faced fluctuating electricity prices driven by wind output, gas supply, and market dynamics. A recent schedule in wholesale prices showed a drop to 124.24 euros per megawatt-hour in November after a period of volatility that had peaked earlier. The energy market has seen a rapid swing, with prices dipping and then spiking again as supply and demand shift. An energy consultant notes that this month’s household bill is on track to be among the lowest of the year for a typical household, with a contracted power capacity around 4.4 kilowatts and annual consumption near 3,500 kilowatt-hours. By comparison, a peak bill was recorded in February, reflecting the cost variability within the market.
These figures pertain to the nine million consumers in the regulated market, which uses a Voluntary Price for Small Consumers structure to handle social bonuses tied to rent and other supports. In the liberalized market, prices are negotiated between suppliers and customers, and can be higher or lower than the regulated rate depending on market conditions and contract terms.
Looking ahead to December, experts anticipate a period of strong wind generation in many regions, which typically lowers wholesale prices compared with other technologies. However, December also brings colder weather and higher gas usage, influenced by storage levels in Spain and nearby areas. The main factor that could offset price declines is renewed renewable energy deployment, as last year saw roughly 4,000 megawatts of wind and solar capacity added to the system. This expansion enhances supply versatility but does not guarantee sustained price relief in the face of seasonal demand and fuel costs.
Iberian exception
Electricity prices in Spain have remained comparatively lower than those seen earlier in the European market during a period when many nations imposed caps. For instance, November averages show higher prices in France, Germany, Belgium, and Italy, while Spain maintained a lower benchmark. The regional mechanism that capped wholesale prices has evolved and is scheduled to adjust through the coming months, with the cap rising gradually toward a higher reference level. By mid-December, the policy changes may reduce the level of protection for consumers if wholesale prices rise, even as plant compensation helps stabilize the system and supports gas usage efficiency.
Overall, the market outlook emphasizes the interconnected nature of wind output, gas prices, storage dynamics, and the regulatory framework. The direction of monthly prices will continue to hinge on how much wind and solar generation can be added, how storage levels evolve, and how policymakers manage the transition as caps and references shift in the new cycle. In practical terms, households will monitor the balance between contracted tariffs and actual consumption, especially during peak winter months when energy demand tends to surge.