Experts say the probability of a new pandemic rising within the next two decades sits around one half. This estimate comes from a discussion with Bill Gates, noted for founding a major technology company, in a newspaper interview published recently. The piece noted that the possibility could stem from a familiar virus evolving into a new form, such as a flu strain turning into a novel coronavirus.
In that interview, Gates suggested the path to rapid treatment and vaccination could be accelerated if science has the right plan. Yet he warned the threat could also arise from deliberate misuse, with a man-made virus potentially spread by a bioterrorist aiming to hit multiple regions at once. That scenario alarms many because it could complicate containment and mobilization efforts in a global landscape.
He did acknowledge the likelihood of a naturally occurring pandemic as well, describing how natural factors might spark outbreaks. The world’s growing population and expanding reach into new ecosystems increase interactions with wildlife, which can raise the risk that new pathogens emerge.
Gates explained his calculation: over the next 20 years, there is about a 50% chance of experiencing a pandemic with natural origins, driven in part by climate change. Building resilience to these threats calls for a robust, coordinated response that can move quickly when signals appear on the horizon.
To strengthen global preparedness, he proposed creating a global epidemic response and mobilization team, likened to a firefighting corps for health crises. He suggested increasing the World Health Organization’s budget by about a quarter, enabling a cadre of roughly 3,000 professionals with diverse expertise to work together on fast, effective responses in crises. This idea centers on faster decision making, better data sharing, and more scalable deployment of resources in the face of emerging threats.
monkey flower
Despite these warnings, Gates does not believe the current monkeypox situation will grow into a full-blown pandemic. He does emphasize concern about unusual clusters of a rare disease and the need to understand why transmission patterns appear to be shifting in parts of Europe. While it is linked to smallpox historically, he does not foresee a large, ongoing epidemic emerging from this event.
Gates remarked that the world’s heightened awareness would not have happened without the COVID-19 crisis. He noted that monkeypox had not been prominent in the public eye before that pandemic era, highlighting how awareness often follows large health events.
On strategies to curb the spread of diverse diseases, Gates highlighted preventative tools such as next‑generation mosquito nets, which can be produced at low cost when manufactured at scale. He also mentioned ongoing work on a more advanced approach: releasing genetically modified mosquitoes designed to interrupt malaria transmission. The goal is to reduce the parasite’s circulation and the vector population over several years. He expressed confidence that this technology could be ready for broader testing within five years.
Monkeypox is a rare viral illness primarily transmitted from wildlife to humans, including rodents and certain primates. Symptoms typically involve fever, head and body aches, fatigue, swollen lymph nodes, and a distinctive skin rash that can appear on multiple areas of the body. The most recent data available at the time referenced in the report noted dozens of confirmed cases across several countries, underscoring the importance of surveillance and rapid response to emerging health threats.