The latest forecast shows a roughly 10 percent rise on Sunday, bringing the price to about €194.64 per megawatt-hour (MWh). This shift follows the wholesale market results, commonly called the pool, and reflects the adjustment paid after the gas cap, marking the fourth lowest price since the Iberian mechanism began on June 15. These figures come from the electricity market operator OMIE and the Iberian Gas Market Mibgas, indicating that the wholesale price paid by consumers at a regulated rate is about €54 lower than the level of €249.16 MWh that would have occurred without the gas cap on electricity generation.
In this moment of Europe’s ongoing energychallenge, the Commission is presenting strategies to address the crisis. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen introduced a plan that seeks to curb demand during peak hours, curb renewable and nuclear charges within the wholesale market, and apply a special tax on profits earned by fossil-fuel using companies. The aim is to ease pressure on households while maintaining energy reliability across the continent. These moves are part of a broader effort to stabilize prices and secure supply amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. The Brussels plan emphasizes tighter consumption rules during peak times and a framework intended to reduce extraordinary profits earned by energy producers.
Brussels predicts revenue of 140,000 million to limit the extraordinary profits of electricity companies
As part of the broader strategy, the European Commission is pursuing a comprehensive reform of the energy market. President von der Leyen has outlined a long-term goal to separate gas-based power generation from renewable energy sources, a transition expected to be completed by the end of the year. This separation would help clarify price signals and improve system resilience by reducing cross-subsidies and encouraging investment in cleaner generation. The reform mirrors a shift toward clearer accounting and governance across the electricity landscape, with the aim of a more predictable and transparent market environment for consumers and businesses alike.
Across major European economies, Sunday prices looked different. In Italy, the price could rise to around €304.22 per MWh. The United Kingdom might see charges near £212.71 per MWh, roughly €245 at current exchange rates. France is anticipated to see about €199.95 per MWh. Germany is expected to record the lowest level among these large economies at €77.93 per MWh, reflecting a recovery to levels not seen since mid-July. In Portugal, where the Iberian gas cap applies under the Iberian exception, the auction price is expected to align with Spain, reflecting the shared market characteristics of the two countries.
Auction and setup
When considering only the wholesale auction results without accounting for the balancing adjustments that the cap beneficiaries must cover to support facilities using the gas, electricity prices would be more than twice as high as the observed baseline, reaching around €131.61 per MWh. Price timings show the peak cost occurring between 21:00 and 22:00 at about €202.28 per MWh, while the most affordable window between 15:00 and 16:00 drops to around €61.01 per MWh.
Beyond these base auction figures, it is essential to include the cost of adjusting for gas-powered plants, which varies with the required volume and system price. These adjustments influence both households and beneficiary businesses. For Sunday, the provisional average adjustment for consumers stands at roughly €63.03 per MWh, with the final price projecting at about €194.64 per MWh. This latest level represents an increase of about 22 percent from the same period last year and reflects the ongoing volatility in European energy markets. The figures underscore how policy decisions and market dynamics interact to shape consumer electricity bills, even as the region pursues long-term reforms aimed at stabilizing prices and encouraging cleaner energy sources.