Funcas, the Savings Banks Foundation, notes that the headline and core inflation will need some time to settle, excluding energy and unprocessed food. The projection suggests a convergence around 5.2 percent by the end of the year, reflecting the expected cooling trend after recent volatility. This outlook is built on the foundation’s central scenario, which assumes energy prices maintain a steady path and macro factors unfold with limited shocks. In practical terms, the index may show gradual easing as supply chains normalize and demand remains contained, even as certain energy-related movements intermittently push prices in opposite directions. (Funcas forecast)
According to Funcas, the inflation trajectory for 2023 and the outlook through 2024 hinge on a gradual deceleration. The forecasted average for 2023 is around 4.3 percent, with a higher projection of 6.6 percent if volatility persists into 2024. The organization describes this as a slow-fall path, where inflation trends toward the mid single digits over the next year, aiming for an average near 3.3 percent in both scenarios. This nuanced view highlights how different risk factors could shape annual averages without derailing the overall cooling pattern. (Funcas forecast)
For the current year, the consumer price index is expected to rise in April due to a final step in energy product effects that may pull the month ahead in the opposite direction from March. Nonetheless, the level should stay well below the 6 percent rate observed in February, suggesting a continuing improvement in price stability even as energy components contribute to short-term movements. (Funcas forecast)
Funcas also points to a sequence of step changes anticipated throughout the year, driven in part by the notable volatility in energy markets last year. The forecast anticipates a gradual decline in the core interest rate with fluctuations that move both up and down, reflecting the ongoing balancing act between energy dynamics and underlying inflation pressures. (Funcas forecast)
Within the central scenario, data assume oil prices hovering near 85 dollars for the year and gas prices displaying relative stability as observed in market measures such as Mibgaz. The baseline picture implies a steady backdrop for inflation, even as shifts in energy costs can introduce short-term rate differences. If gas prices were to be 20 percent higher than the discounted futures price, the combined inflation rate would sit around 4.7 percent for 2023 and 3.9 percent for 2024. Conversely, if gas were 15 percent cheaper, the annual averages would adjust to around 4 percent and 2.8 percent respectively. These alternative paths illustrate how energy sensitivities can shape the inflation trajectory while remaining aligned with the central forecast. (Funcas forecast)