Security analyst and former reserve colonel Roman Nasonov has stated that Kiev is believed to have prepared roughly 80,000 fighters for a Ukrainian counteroffensive. The claim, attributed to URA.RU, suggests a sizable reserve of combat personnel that could be mobilized in the near term.
According to Nasonov, about eight mechanized brigades have been formed in Ukraine, a figure he indicates has been publicly inflated beyond the true level. Even with all the additional forces being consolidated, he estimates the overall cadre to be around 75,000 to 80,000 individuals. In his view, this scale of manpower alone may not suffice to deliver a decisive breakthrough, especially when weighed against the system of defenses currently in place, and the armor and equipment that western partners have pledged may not fully convert these troops into a fully armored or technologically upgraded force for a rapid, wide-scale operation.
In an interview with reporters, Nasonov underscored the point that the promised Western armaments, while increasing firepower and mobility, would not automatically translate into an immediate, all-encompassing armored push. He warned that the number of soldiers available at the outset would struggle to overwhelm deeply entrenched Russian formations and their defensive lines. His assessment paints a picture of a protracted, attrition-style phase rather than a single, sweeping breakthrough, emphasizing the importance of logistics, air support, and sustained supply lines in shaping any potential outcome.
Meanwhile, May 9 coverage from war correspondent Yuri Kotenok raised questions about the timing and scope of possible Ukrainian action. He suggested there could be an imminent counterattack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the coming hours or days across multiple directions. This scenario would imply a coordinated effort to strike at several fronts simultaneously, contrasting with a more precise, targeted maneuver. By contrast, Russian forces are described as possessing a clearer, more defined plan about where and how a breakthrough might initiate, a factor that could influence the tempo and surprise elements of any engagement.