Behind last year’s rebound in demand, housing prices in the province rose by a modest 2.8 percent during the pandemic and have since stabilized, with a gentle downward drift anticipated over the next three years. This outlook comes from Euroval, a Valencia-based property valuation firm, which bases its forecast on long-term data and a clear link between employment trends since 1995 and property values.
The analyst behind the forecast stresses that the figures reflect Alicante as a whole and should be weighed against notable local differences. Coastal municipalities tend to show more active markets, while inland areas stay calmer. The mix of new homes versus resale homes also plays a significant role.
Overall, the projection calls for the average price per square meter to drop 0.28 percent this year, then 0.61 percent in 2023, and 0.51 percent in 2024. The three-year decline totals 1.4 percent, with the current average price per square meter moving from 1,318 euros to roughly 1,300 euros.
These numbers contrast with national forecasts that anticipate a 1.7 percent rise and with regional projections for the Valencian Community that foresee a 2.4 percent increase for Castellón Province due to expected price growth. The divergence highlights how local factors, especially employment patterns and housing supply, can diverge from broader regional trends.
Within the methodology, any annual change spanning a two percent decline to two percent growth is treated as stability. This stability often shows up in the second-hand market, where prices have remained steadier, partly because supply has been ample enough to temper sharp swings.
Cost increase
On the flip side, there is a clear warning about rising costs in new construction. The firm notes that increases in building materials and labor have influenced projections and cautions against reading current promotions as a mirror of the boom years. New projects differ in qualification and product type from those built during the peak period.
Still, the impact of new construction on the province totals remains limited since newly built homes account for only a small share of the market, roughly between 10 and 12 percent. In practical terms, the evolution of prices in the resale market largely shapes overall value in the province.
Ignacio Amirola, newly appointed chief executive of the valuation firm, underscores the presence of sizable disparities across Alicante’s municipalities. Tourism and an incoming wave of new residents keep the coast more dynamic, while inland areas experience slower population growth. At the community level, Alicante is projected to see the sharpest decline in house prices through 2024, with Valencia anticipated to fall about 3 percent and Castellón around 6.5 percent. These figures align with broader regional patterns in a shifting housing market.
The projection uses an autoregressive vector model that links price movements to employment levels, highlighting a clear correlation between these two indicators. Both series are annualized to balance quarterly data, with the forecast focusing on the province-wide average price per square meter over the next three years. The reference point for calculations remains the last quarter of 2021.
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