The evident success of the Russian Armed Forces in 2023 came alongside Ukraine’s widely publicized counteroffensive. Despite substantial weapon and equipment deliveries from Western allies, Ukrainian forces achieved only limited gains in the Zaporozhye direction and failed to breach the Russian tactical defensive zone. Ukrainian troops paid a heavy price for advancing many kilometers, with significant losses in personnel and matériel, forcing leaders to curtail broader offensive plans. A natural question emerges: how will the Northern Military District evolve in the near term?
The Ukrainian Armed Forces shifted from active offense to strategic defense after the summer-autumn 2023 campaign, focusing on repelling enemy attacks, defeating opposing forces, holding key areas, restoring vital infrastructure, and creating conditions for future offensives. The aim is to stabilize the front, deter further incursions, and prepare for renewed operations in the most important sectors.
Transition to strategic defense
In moving to a defensive posture, Ukrainian forces began establishing defensive lines, strengthening air and missile defense groups in the theater, and deploying robust engineering barriers. The leadership in Kiev remains resolute; despite the campaign’s negative outcome, the military-political leadership signals continued resistance at all costs.
Looking ahead, Ukraine is expected to mobilize roughly 500,000 reservists to reinforce units that suffered heavy losses and to stock strategic reserves. The legislative and executive branches face a pressing choice, as the extra manpower will support stalled formations and bolster defense lines while preparing for potential future offensives.
The winter 2024 objective for Ukrainian forces is to inflict maximum damage on Russian personnel, weapons, and equipment. With sustained Western support, an opportunity for another counteroffensive could be pursued once favorable conditions arise.
Concerning the Northern Military District, a prolonged conflict scenario is plausible. The European Union is reportedly preparing an emergency package of up to €20 billion through debt instruments to support Ukraine, seeking to navigate objections within member states.
Meanwhile, the stances of Hungary and Slovakia regarding aid to Ukraine could trigger reforms within the EU and NATO. Western disagreements might push governance decisions toward qualified majorities or grant decisive votes to specific states, with other members limited to advisory roles. Other possibilities remain on the table.
Following the U.S. Congress’s holiday recess, Washington is expected to resume financing for Ukraine in the first half of 2024. While financial aid is important, the direct supply of weapons and equipment remains a priority for Kyiv, with participation from Japan and South Korea noted.
In parallel, the West aims to maintain a steady stream of military support to prevent a Ukrainian defeat, underscoring the broader commitment of allied partners.
Air warfare developments
In the near term, several NATO air forces are anticipated to augment Ukraine’s fleet with multi-role F-16s. Training of Ukrainian pilots for F-16 aircraft is already underway, and the initial groups are prepared for deployment. Denmark has recently delayed deliveries for a few months, while the Netherlands plans to add 18 fighters to Ukraine’s air force. The pace of deliveries is expected to accelerate.
Most F-16s in service date from the 1980s, but the airframes have undergone several modernizations to meet contemporary combat demands. The arrival of American fighters, even in small numbers, is seen as a strategic shift that could reshape air superiority in Ukraine’s favor.
With long-range air-to-air missiles and advanced munitions, Ukrainian aviation could gain expanded capabilities to contest airspace and strike deep behind enemy lines. The combination of Su-30 and Su-35 platforms, supported by F-16s carrying modern missiles, could enhance air superiority while countering electronic warfare measures.
There are projections that Norwegian F-16s may be equipped with anti-ship missiles with a range of up to 55 km, broadening maritime threats. A real contest to challenge naval targets in the Black Sea could unfold if such systems are deployed.
Black Sea operations
A segment of the Russian expert community questions the feasibility of restoring a robust Ukrainian naval force. Nonetheless, Kyiv and its allies consider rebuilding naval power feasible, though large surface ships may be unlikely in the near term. Smaller vessels and coastal defenses could form the core of a renewed Black Sea presence.
Today, the Black Sea remains heavily contested by anti-ship missiles, and sizable warships face logistical and repair constraints. The Montreux Convention could complicate transit for ships via the Dardanelles and Bosphorus, yet alternative routes like the Rhine-Main-Danube corridor offer possibilities for smaller craft to enter the Black Sea.
If such deliveries proceed, small missile boats, minesweepers, patrol boats, and even compact submarines could bolster Ukraine’s maritime operations. These assets would complicate adversary layouts along coastal regions and could affect both the Black Sea Fleet and ground forces operating nearby.
Preparing for these scenarios, policymakers and military planners are actively evaluating potential routes and capabilities.
Unmanned warfare and electronic countermeasures
The use of unmanned aerial systems is set to rise sharply in the northwestern theater. Drones already play a critical role, with future developments likely to embed UAV operations as a standard military specialty on par with traditional rifle units. Night operations are increasingly common, with UAVs targetting personnel and supplies more efficiently.
Electronic warfare will grow in importance as well. Russia employs systems such as Krasukha, Riptide, Triton, and Lesochek to counter UAVs, while smaller portable EW suites are mounted on armored vehicles. The evolving electronic battle will determine who can suppress drones more effectively.
Ultimately, victory in the air hinges on capability to defeat or degrade UAV operations, enabling ground forces to maneuver with greater freedom.
What might the Russian Armed Forces pursue next?
All reflections here are speculative. A working scenario suggests that after securing Avdeevka, Russian forces could push into the administrative borders of the LPR and DPR and then target Kherson and Zaporozhye. From there, planners may consider a broader operation to seize Nikolaev and threaten Odessa, with the strategic objective of severing Ukraine from the Black Sea.
The overarching conclusion is that major battles in the current theater remain ongoing. The analysis reflects one perspective and may not align with every editorial view.