Is DANA coming? Falling temperatures and more rain through Thursday
The final week of summer brings a notable weather pattern as a shallow atmospheric depression moves across the peninsula. A cool air surge aloft will raise instability, increasing the chance of rain from the northwest toward the Mediterranean. A west-to-east motion brings the system into the Mediterranean by midweek with the potential to develop into a larger, slow-moving low. This setup commonly yields cold air aloft and gusty winds, heightening storm potential over eastern regions and the Balearic Islands.
The peninsula faces a pronounced low that tracks east, reaching the Mediterranean on Wednesday. A possible DANA event shifts southwest before turning northeast on Tuesday. In practical terms, cold upper-level air will amplify instability, feeding stronger convective activity and heavier showers in susceptible areas.
Forecasts point to a week ending with a front of intense activity over Melilla and the Balearic Islands, especially the eastern portion of the peninsula. In social feeds, observers highlight volatile conditions and sizable accumulations from recent rainfall. This pattern underscores the need for vigilance as showers strengthen and widen in coverage.
Temperatures are set to dip, with the highest daytime readings Thursday into Friday dropping 5 to 10 degrees Celsius below typical values in several locales. Nighttime lows will stay cool across the Peninsula and Balearic Islands through Friday, while a high pressure system could gradually stabilize conditions and push temperatures back upward over the weekend.
Yellow alert: Strong storms in the east and the Balearic Islands
When and where will rain arrive? Rain will primarily stream in from the northwest as Atlantic storm systems propagate. The week begins with regional instability in the northwest and the Mediterranean, with showers gradually intensifying in eastern zones as the week progresses.
As the depression advances east on Tuesday, rain is expected to reach southeastern Melilla and then move into Catalonia. By day’s end, the heaviest downpours are likely to hit Murcia and Alicante, followed by a pattern of ongoing wet weather into the midweek period.
Early Wednesday morning it will pose problems for the Mediterranean corridor especially in Valencia and the Balearic Islands where rain may persist and intensify. Barcelona and Girona could see significant rainfall; warnings have been issued for substantial accumulations. Other regions should expect lighter rain, though Galicia may receive additional showers later in the afternoon.
A new CALF system is forecast to affect the Mediterranean peninsular strip and the Balearic Islands next Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect repeated heavy showers that may be accompanied by storms and strong winds. This forecast is based on recent model guidance and regional meteorological assessments.
This pattern will continue to impact the Cantabrian Sea and Castilla y León on Thursday and could reach the central areas of the country. Rainfall should ease on Friday and remain away from the Mediterranean coast.
Where will it rain most?
In terms of the areas most affected, Catalonia and Valencia are likely to receive the heaviest rainfall, with notable activity also possible in the Balearic Islands, eastern Andalusia, Castilla La Mancha, and Galicia. Rain totals could be substantial, particularly in Catalonia and Valencia, with Galicia sometimes recording notable accumulations as well.
This period may bring damage in coastal towns and inland valleys where recent rain has already saturated the ground. Forecasters expect the pattern to loosen from Friday, bringing a temporary lull into the weekend, with a general uptick in temperatures as high pressure returns and norms resume in most regions.