In Brazil, religion and politics intertwined during the campaign season, with the influence of Bolsonaroism shaping public discourse and Lula da Silva facing intensified scrutiny over abortion and family values. The conservative current entering the final stretch of the election appears to narrow the space for broader, more centrist approaches. Should Lula win, even by a slim margin on October 30, observers expect he would need to secure a center-right coalition to advance a program already perceived as compromised by previous political shifts. If Bolsonaro prevails, his path to governance would rely on a legislature aligned with his agenda to speed up reform measures.
During 2019, the Bolsonaro administration faced opposition from Congress amid the pandemic that claimed many lives. Impeachment motions were raised, challenging the administration as the health crisis unfolded. A conservative bloc has proposed measures aimed at limiting the release of poll results. A draft from similar groups suggested policies on environmental protection that drew attention to the Atlantic forest. In the coming year, policy disputes could intensify. A former Environment Minister, Ricardo Salles, who faced controversy over forest governance and compliance with international agreements, indicated a desire to chair a key House committee that would influence environmental discussions beyond the immediate concerns of the day.
At present, this trend reflects a broader shift in parliamentary behavior, with a system that tilts further to the right than before. A former general, Eduardo Pazuello, who was linked to the health crisis response, secured votes in Rio de Janeiro, as did a former football star and other notable figures such as a former judge and a former prosecutor involved in Lula’s conviction, a decision later overturned by the Supreme Court. An evangelical pastor and former family minister, Damares Alves, secured a seat with support from the first lady and is expected to strengthen the evangelical representation in both houses. Nearby sits Teresa Cristina da Costa, the former agriculture minister, reinforcing the influence of farming interests in the chamber.
first warnings
This evolving congress signaled a potential future direction as elected representatives began to outline their priorities. Alberto Fraga, a deputy and ally of Bolsonaro, signals a push for stricter criminal code provisions and greater access to firearms for Brazilians. He will not act in isolation; the bloc allied with Bolsonaro, known as PL, could hold a substantial share of seats, potentially giving far-right factions a stronger voice in the chamber.
Historically, Bolsonaro has faced criticism for remarks rooted in racial and social tensions. The party, however, includes a significant share of elected MPs who identify with Afro-Brazilian communities, reflecting a complex political landscape. An alliance with other conservative blocs would give Bolsonarism a large presence in the legislative branch. Meanwhile, the so-called center-leaning bloc and centrist allies may form coalitions with varied agendas. The Workers’ Party and allied groups are expected to strengthen as a counterweight, while a broader Lula-aligned coalition would seek to shield the president from impeachment pressures if Lula secures the election. The landscape suggests a parliament where alignments shift quickly and loyalties are tested.
MPs with court records
Several Bolsonarista figures face ongoing legal inquiries, including a former governor who remains a presence in the House of Representatives despite lawsuits. It is not unique in this parliament for many deputies to have faced legal scrutiny in recent years, including cases of embezzlement, fraud, and even homicide. The history-making entries include trailblazers who broke gender barriers, with women entering parliament in notable numbers for the first time. While the makeup of the chamber shows a growing, diverse presence, parity remains distant. In Maranhão, a high-profile candidate won broad support, defeating a well-known incumbent husband who previously held a prominent seat. The composition of the 2023 legislature marks a shift toward greater representation, even as the overall balance of power remains fluid and dependent on ongoing political negotiations. [Source: Brazilian press reporting on the 2022–2023 electoral period]