It is no secret that European summers are growing drier and hotter, and this trend shows no signs of slowing. This summer stands as a clear illustration of that shift, with dry conditions and intense heat waves becoming more frequent. Climate research indicates that in the latter part of the century, southern Europe and the broader Mediterranean basin will experience especially severe heat and droughts as a consequence of ongoing climate change.
Researchers, including Elfatih Eltahir, a civil and environmental engineering professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, point to climate models that forecast persistent dry spells in southern Europe and around the Mediterranean. The heat spots identified by these models are anticipated to be the regions most profoundly affected by drought due to rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns.
In this context, heat waves—an extreme weather event that has returned with notable regularity in recent years, including episodes in the 2020s—gain renewed significance for Southern Europe. The persistence of such events is tied to how the region responds to moisture deficits and rising temperatures, making the situation particularly urgent for this part of Europe. But why exactly does this happen?
The role of soil moisture
The southern European climate sits at a crossroads between the dry subtropics and the more humid mid-latitudes. When summer arrives, temperatures soar and evaporate surface water quickly. This means that soil moisture depends heavily on whether spring rains were ample enough to sustain the ground through the hot months ahead.
A dry spring in Europe, comparable to 2022, leaves soils parched as late spring gives way to early summer. The lack of surface water curtails evaporation during summer, allowing heat to build in the air. Consequently, the near-surface air becomes drier, and the atmosphere holds less moisture to fuel precipitation. These two effects amplify the likelihood of heat waves and droughts, a pattern that climate researchers emphasize as a key driver of summer risks in the region.
Experts note that while these dynamics push heat and drought risk higher, a single factor does not tell the whole story. The emergence of a heat extreme often requires a spark from large-scale atmospheric patterns. In Europe and beyond, such sparks come from shifts in air pressure and the arrangement of high-pressure systems that trap warm air over the continent for extended periods.
Illustrating this point, Dr. Alexandre Tuel explains that the arrival of a blocking anticyclone over dry soils can trigger a rapid surface temperature rise, potentially sparking weeks-long heat waves. This helps explain why southern Europe and the wider Mediterranean region are especially prone to hot spells when spring rainfall is sparse and atmospheric dynamics align unfavorably.
Spring rains will continue to decrease
Looking ahead, researchers expect spring precipitation to decline, a trend that will likely make scorching summers more common in this corner of the world. This shift increases the vulnerability of the region to heat waves and sustained drought conditions as soil moisture reserves fail to recharge adequately each year.
While floods present a more complex forecasting challenge due to the interplay of numerous factors and atmospheric dynamics, warming temperatures generally raise the water content of the atmosphere. When weather patterns align to bring precipitation, more intense rainfall can fall in a warmer climate. In recent times, such dynamics contributed to extreme rain events in parts of Europe, underscoring the broad influence of climate change on regional hydrology and weather extremes.
For additional context, this assessment reflects findings discussed in reports addressing Europe’s vulnerability to climate change and its potential to intensify drought and heat events in the near and mid-term future. (Phys.org, 2022)
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