Daniel Noboa took office as president of Ecuador on November 23, 2023, at the age of 36. Within two months in office, the nation faced an unprecedented security crisis. A state of emergency was declared after the escape of José Adolfo Macías, known as Fito, from a prison where the Los Choneros and other powerful criminal groups operate. The escape underscored the scale of threats facing Ecuador, a country already grappling with violent gangs, prison unrest, and a deteriorating security situation. From prison riots to shootings at media venues, car bombs, and multiple killings, the government faced a harsh test to stabilize the public order and reclaim control across the country. The events suggested a deeply rooted internal conflict that demanded a strong, coordinated response from security forces.
How did this situation arise?
In a short period, Ecuador shifted from relative calm to a scene of escalating crime. The Ecuadorian Observatory for Organized Crime notes that the country became more integrated into global criminal networks starting around 2019. The murder rate, measured per 100,000 inhabitants, rose sharply in the past seven years, corresponding with the influx of cocaine and other illicit drugs along the Pacific coast.
Gangs that began with local clashes expanded by forming links with international cartels. The Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation cartels from Mexico, the Gulf Clan from Colombia, and other groups reached into territorial and prison networks, intensifying the fight for dominance. As these factions grew, they began penetrating state structures, turning cities and prisons into theaters of confrontation. Reports since 2021 indicate hundreds of deaths in prisons due to rival gang violence. These dynamics created a climate in which security forces faced a sprawling, multi-front challenge.
Noboa ran on a platform of halting the bleeding and redefining strategies to defeat drug trafficking. Yet the crisis soon presented a harsher reality than the issues he inherited. A chronic struggle with organized crime raised questions about how to avoid repeating past patterns and how to rebuild public trust in institutions.
Groups
Organized crime appears dispersed yet remains organized by a few dominant factions. Noboa has identified about 22 active groups, with Los Choneros, led by Fito, believed to command thousands, along with subgroups such as Las Águilas, Los Gángsters, and R-7. Reports describe life inside high security facilities for some leaders, where comforts persist and access to resources signals a fluid prison landscape. Analysts suggest that prison networks may have shifted focus in response to proposed large-scale reforms, including the construction of mega-prisons. Some observers speculate that this could alter the balance of power among criminal outfits.
Beyond these major factions, numerous groups exist, including smaller crews and insurgent actors. The government lists several named factions and their affiliates, highlighting the breadth of the challenge. Illegal activities linked to these groups extend beyond drug trafficking and into arms smuggling, extortion, contract violence, illegal mining, and money laundering. Coastal areas such as Manabí and Santa Elena play roles in trafficking networks by leveraging boats and limited aviation capacity. In some cases, clandestine runways are used to support illicit shipments.
Social backdrop
Understanding the crisis requires looking at broader social factors. Persistent poverty, unemployment, and widening inequality contribute to crime and hinder peaceful social progress. Analysts point to a connection between deteriorating living conditions and the rise of violence in urban centers and rural areas alike.
Long-term stress on social systems has roots in past shocks, including major natural disasters and health emergencies. These events affected economic stability and affected the most vulnerable, reinforcing cycles of poverty that make illicit opportunity more appealing to some communities. The combination of limited access to essential services and uneven development helps explain why crime can take root in multiple regions of the country.
What can be done in case of internal armed conflict?
The notion of a civil armed conflict marks a turning point in how trouble is confronted. Security and human rights experts have emphasized the need for a clear legal framework and proportional responses. Some officials have described a broad mobilization of the armed forces to restore order and protect civilians while the state reinforces its presence in affected areas.
Official decrees have authorized broader use of means to confront armed groups. The intent is to dismantle networks that threaten stability, while human rights organizations monitor the balance between security measures and civil liberties. Legal authorities anticipate that higher courts will review the scope of emergency powers and ensure accountability.
Top security leaders have underscored a firm stance against any organization aiming to destabilize the country. The aim is to safeguard residents, restore confidence in public institutions, and prevent further disruptions. The current path may include temporary limitations on certain rights and enhanced law enforcement capabilities as part of a broader strategy to reestablish law and order. The situation remains dynamic, with ongoing dialogue about governance, security, and accountability.
Government and opposition
The recent period has seen political actors realign in ways that reflect the gravity of the moment. The opposition has largely supported Noboa, while some former leaders have urged unity and resilience in the face of organized crime. Government statements call for national solidarity and a refusal to let crime dictate the terms of public life. In exile, some politicians have signaled a willingness to set aside differences to confront the threat together.
In parallel, members of the National Assembly have suggested that police and military personnel involved in the struggle receive broad-based amnesty or general forgiveness for actions taken in the line of duty. Speakers from multiple parties emphasize cooperation and a shared responsibility to address the crisis responsibly and effectively. The evolving political landscape mirrors a country mobilizing across its institutions to confront a common threat.