Even though 2022 featured an exceptionally hot summer, it may be remembered as a surprisingly cool year in the future. Experts say the shift isn’t due to political factions but to climate change, a long-standing reality that has been with us for years.
The rapid warming of the Arctic has altered jet streams from Eurasia, slowing the circulation of air. This slowdown helps heat accumulate across the globe, fueling several intense heat waves that last longer than normal. Scientists note that global warming is likely to continue, especially if key climate agreements like the Paris Accord are not fully honored. The rising temperatures intensify droughts and heavy rains, melting ice, and widespread forest loss.
United Nations analysis shows that large wildfires, typically spanning more than 500 hectares, have increased in recent years and are expected to rise further. By 2050, the organization projects a global increase of about 30 percent in fire activity compared with today.
In Spain, 2022 is predicted to be among the worst years in a century, with hundreds of thousands of hectares burned. The causes are clear and tied to the climate emergency: soil moisture declines due to drought, higher temperatures, and insufficient prevention. The result is expanding scrubland from abandoned forests and cropland, insufficient urban planning that accounts for fire risk, and limited funding for prevention and recovery efforts.
Only a handful of countries allocate two-thirds of their budgets to prevention and recovery while dedicating one-third to suppression. The clear takeaway is to apply what is known: fires can be prevented and extinguished more effectively with the help of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, satellites, and drones, guided by skilled professionals.
Drought has always been a concern, but this century has seen a 30 percent rise in drought frequency and intensity, spreading into regions previously considered safe. By 2050, the United Nations projects that three-quarters of the planet will face water stress, which could force hundreds of millions to relocate in search of reliable water sources and arable land.
The two phenomena interconnect: rainfall shifts accompany overall water scarcity, and global water consumption has doubled since the 1960s. Today, about 2.2 billion people lack access to safe drinking water. Reservoir levels in many regions are well below capacity, underscoring the urgent need to conserve and manage water wisely. In Spain, household consumption often exceeds European averages, irrigation continues to rise, and groundwater use can be excessive in some areas. If no action is taken, a large portion of the country could face persistent water shortages, harming agriculture and human consumption alike.
Across the globe, the projection remains stark: three quarters of the planet could experience water stress by 2050. This is a call to rethink how societies use scarce resources and to adopt resilient, data-driven approaches to water management and climate adaptation.
If a reader has followed this far, it is important to stress that these observations are rooted in data and expert analysis, not merely social media narratives. Two questions arise: how did this situation develop, and why do people persist in actions that hinder progress? Without delving into human psychology, the explanation lies in a system built over two centuries that treated nature as an endless resource and prioritized the interests of capital owners. This mindset has contributed to climate disruption and its consequences.
Looking ahead, transforming the economic model is essential. A shift toward circular economy principles and stakeholder capitalism—with active state involvement—offers a path forward. This approach aligns with recommendations from responsible sectors of global capitalism and aims to curb harmful practices. The Scientific Rebellion group advocates zero tolerance for those who trivialize climate change and its tangible effects. As one advocate puts it, when human survival is at stake, short-term or ideological politics must yield to science-backed strategies.
The International Monetary Fund has revised forecasts in response to the war in Ukraine, confirming that conflict slows global growth and boosts inflation in the near term, though it is expected to ease next year. Spain, however, is projected to grow faster than the euro area on average and continue job creation, though the timeline to return to pre-crisis GDP levels may shift.
Within this context, the government’s 2023 budget framework reveals two interpretations. In nominal terms, the expenditure ceiling is historically high. Yet when inflation is accounted for, real spending as a share of GDP appears lower than in 2021, and as incomes rise relative to expenditures, the budget deficit tightens. Which interpretation best reflects the situation remains a matter of perspective.