The Mediterranean coastfaces a sharper challenge from climate change, with sea levels rising at a rate that regulators and scientists now describe as three times faster than previously anticipated. A new assessment from the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), supported by Radboud University, highlights how this rapid advance threatens coastal communities and vital infrastructure by the end of the century. Slow, steady land subsidence near shorelines intensifies the issue, compounding the effects of warming seas. (Attribution: INGV; Radboud University)
In this report, researchers note that the sea level rise estimates published by the IPCC in 2021 likely underestimate shoreline changes. The collaboration emphasizes that subsidence accentuates coastal inundation risks and accelerates coastline retreat in several sections of the Mediterranean. (Attribution: INGV; Radboud University)
Ground subsidence worsens the problem
Subsidence, or the gradual sinking of land due to natural and human factors, plays a pivotal role in the observed acceleration of coastal sea level rise since 1880, according to INGV researcher Marco Anzidei. This downward movement interacts with rising seas to push flood risk higher along the coast. (Attribution: INGV)
“Our analysis shows that sea level is rising three times faster in parts of the Mediterranean because of land sinking”, explains Antonio Vecchio of Radboud University Nijmegen, the study’s lead author. (Attribution: Radboud University)
In light of these findings, the team revisited IPCC projections through 2150. The study draws on 265 coastal zones and 51 tide gauges from international networks, incorporating data on land subsidence. The sampled regions include Catalonia, the Valencian Community, Murcia, Almería, Andalusia, and the Balearic Islands. (Attribution: INGV; Radboud University)
“The results show maximum and minimum differences ranging from roughly 109 centimeters more to 77 centimeters less than the IPCC projections, with the average about 8 centimeters higher,” Vecchio notes. (Attribution: Radboud University)
Overall, the data indicate that about 38,500 square kilometers of the Mediterranean coastline—nearly 19,000 square kilometers of this in the northern basin—could face substantial exposure to sea flooding in the near future. This scenario would amplify impacts on ecosystems, human activities, and infrastructure. (Attribution: INGV)
Researchers add that large portions of the coasts of Italy, Greece, Spain, and France are subsiding, which speeds up sea level rise and elevates risk levels across major shorelines. (Attribution: INGV)
Consequently, the report urges that concrete measures be taken to safeguard coastal populations. As vulnerability to sea level rise grows later this century and beyond, adaptive strategies and resilient planning become essential to reduce future harm. (Attribution: INGV; Radboud University)
Note: the figures and conclusions summarized here are drawn from the cited study and related data, and are intended to inform policy makers, local governments, and coastal communities about future risk and resilience needs. (Attribution: INGV; Radboud University)
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