A durable 2022, especially thanks to the pulling force Gezi; and a year later declining growthAlthough it is above most of the eurozone economies. These are the ponósticos of Spain. Celebrating the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) annual meeting this week in Washington with the World Bank, this institution’s ‘World Economic Perspectives’ fall report.
The forecast for Spain for this year is 4.3% growth, three-tenths more than the July forecast and five-tenths less than last April. In the case of 2023, the cuts point to a much more significant and sharp slowdown. 1.2% growth expectedThis represents an 8-tenth decrease from July and a 2.1 percentage point decrease as predicted last April. In any case, despite the substantial downward revision this is the highest level among euro area countries.As there are cases like Germany and Italy that dropped 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. The IMF report, which predicts an average increase of 3.1% and 0.5% in 2023 in the euro area, hides the enormous heterogeneity between countries and reflects the effects of the war in Ukraine, especially in terms of inflation.
Talking about the analysis of the fund escalation inflation due to prices electricrising rapidly, even in the countries that use the most renewable energyAs in the case of Spain, Denmark, Ireland or Portugal.
The projections for Spain, however, are far from those of the Government, which cut the expected GDP growth by 2.1 percent next year, by six-tenths last week, and increased it by one-tenth to 4.4 percent this year. These are the figures on which the General Government Budget project for the coming year is based, and which cause some circles to question the expense accounts and especially the budget accounts. To collectIt is estimated as 7.7% growth.
In fact, the Bank of Spain slashed its public accounts to 1.4 percent in 2023, the day after it entered Congress, and increased it to 4.5 percent this year. Other organizations, such as BBVA Research, cut their forecasts for next year to 1%. What all the forecasts point to is a major slowdown next year after 2022, which is based on a downturn, especially in the second and third quarters, thanks to the pressure from tourism.
According to the IMF report, Spain and Italy stand out especially. tourism services and industrial production in summer in the first half of the year. These variables have contributed to the acceleration of the growth rate of both economies and show a good growth balance for the year as a whole. By contrast, growth in the two countries slumped drastically in the face of 2023, a year when Italy will record a decline in GDP, as will Germany.
Speaking in New York, the vice president and finance minister, Nadia CalvinoIt sent an optimistic message and argued for the “strong resilience” of the Spanish economy, “continuing to record strong growth and presenting a set of strengths to face and overcome the challenges ahead”.
At the press conference, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, director of the IMF’s research service, said, “Spain did very well in 2022,” and economist Petya Koeva Brooks from the institution pointed out that they will receive the same data from Spain. It would be even better if they could count on second-quarter results, and he reminded that he takes European funds into account, the forecast for next year “we would probably see higher numbers than we have now.”
Inflation forecasts, one of the variables that most affected the slowdown, are also high for Spain. For this year, the IMF places them at 8.8% in 2022 and 4.9% next year. These are levels above Government estimates and a. The average general price level is 7.1% in 2022 and 4.1 in 2023.