It’s easy to exaggerate in politics, but it wouldn’t be an exaggeration to say that. by-elections He United States celebrates November 8 these for the country for decades.
Two years after the presidential election that brought Joe Biden to the White House and gave the Democratic Party minimal control over Congress, Americans are returning to the polls. If possible they do more in one country polarizedIt was shaken and hit by inflation by the Supreme Court’s decision this summer to remove constitutional protections for the right to abortion.
Congress’s decision, 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 out of 100 seats in the Senate, it depends The future of the Biden Agenda and more. Because Americans will vote in state races, where they will elect with 36 governors and legislatures. positions responsible for elections. And with the avalanche of Republican hopefuls linked to the ‘big lie’ donald trump, that they continue to reject the legitimate results of the last presidential elections and that they can reach decisive positions for organizing the elections and documenting the results, in danger 2024 and the democratic system, as the White House and many historians and observers have warned.
tide
Until a few months ago, Democrats had a black view of the ‘midterms’, traditionally a referendum on the ruling party. In the summer, the abortion decision was turned upside down, a series of legislative victories for Biden, the Congressional hearings on the attack on Capitol Hill, and the seizure of official documents illegally obtained by the former president in Mar-a-Lago. Although a democratic blue wave is not expected, republican red stopped.
However, one month before the elections, the tides are turning again and Democratic optimism is tempered. Even though Biden lowered his disapproval scores a bit, he still 10 point deficit according to approval. Surveys a paint dominant pessimism about the direction of the country and the majority of them see Republicans as more capable of fixing it. Practically no polls or predictions that don’t put the lower house under conservative control. And The fight for the Senate is rawAll eyes are on Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia and Nevada.
“There is reason to be worried, to be pessimistic.”James Carville, a Democratic strategist, said recently. “We seemed to be gaining strength at the end of August and I don’t know if we’re regressing but We are not progressing in many places”.
abortion
Steps were read as Biden announced this Thursday amnesty for minor federal convictions for possession of marijuana and forced him to revise his classification of the substance among the most dangerous drugs (like the recent suspension of some of the federal student debt). clear select key aspect attempt to mobilize youth or minority votes racial. But great hope and strategy The Democrat is, above all, committed to self-preservation. mobilization cause in the USA decline in reproductive rights From the judgment of the Almighty.
This setback has already become palpable 14 states where voluntary termination of pregnancy is practically impossible or the discontinuation of interventions in 66 clinics, 26 of which have closed their doors, according to the Guttmacher Institute’s latest study.
Rejection of these retroactive steps and Republican threat to propose federal veto Starting from the 15th week of pregnancy, it pushes more voters, especially women, to register. And in addition to what happened this summer in Kansas, a conservative state where the majority decided to protect the right to abortion in the state constitution (a move voted in November in five other states), it represents the possibility for Democrats: attracting independents and Republican-leaning women.
The explicit commitment is reflected in the data, for example, by the fact that one out of every three dollars invested in advertising by Democrats and their allies focuses on abortion. And although some voices in the party warn it”you need to talk about more than abortion“, the strategy is irreversible.
inflation and crime
this republicansfor their part, they manage to feel at this last stage before the elections. revert to a more traditional ‘midterm’ mentality. And his message focused on: inflation and economical situationon matters such as security or immigration The polls showing the main concerns of Americans have echoes, or are getting it.
Most of the candidates radicals in their primary campaigns on issues such as abortion even in you alliance with Trumpfor many things necessary for success, now delete or limit or hide references on campaign websites. And they do this especially for Senate candidates where a certain level of restraint is more necessary than perfectly drawn districts for the House of Representatives to ensure victory, despite the fact that rural and white voters continue to be overrepresented.
Trump and democracy
this radicalization of the partyand still determines Trump’s powerStill, the former president’s focus on non-existent voter fraud and exposing FBI records remains prominent, even as it diverts attention from mid-term winners such as inflation or crime. And the conscience in the party is what one Republican strategist recently expressed: “We can’t win if we remove the Trump electorateThis is the pure truth. What you have to do is get it moving without scaring others.”
Moreover, Trump and his adherence to Trumpism make up the majority of the conservative establishment. An irreversible way to try to maintain power at all costs, even the democratic one. According to a study published this week by The Washington Post 299 Republicans vying for Congress or leading government offices deny validity of presidential results Of these, 176 are practically victory-guaranteed, and 51 are vying for contested seats or positions.
The large number of these candidates is not only alarming, but positions that will determine the election results in state and presidential elections. And considering that already in 2024 our eyes are on the extremist candidates for governor above all else. Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan and Nevada, Moreover secretaries of state there (except for Pennsylvania, where he was elected by the governor).
Never before has so much been invested in racing until this year for a position that has gone unnoticed until 2020. this most of the funds come mostly from the states where they are spent. And this is one of the clearest signs that the interests and danger behind these breeds go beyond choosing a state.