Climate change from human-induced global warming was responsible for the severe droughts recorded It’s in most of the northern hemisphere this summer, according to a study by the scientific group World Weather Attribution (WWA). To be exact, the Spanish meteorological agency AEMET confirmed this. This year is currently the warmest on record in the Iberian Peninsula.
WWA research estimates that human-induced climate change is making soil moisture drought conditions at least 20 times more intense, damaging crop production and putting more pressure on food prices and food security itself.
The Northern Hemisphere summer of 2022 was one of the warmest ever recorded in Europe, with over 24,000 heat-related deaths, and brought intense heatwaves to the Iberian Peninsula, parts of China and North America.
It was also very dry and the resulting drought crop shortages leading to widespread water shortages, wildfires and higher food prices, It also affects the electricity supply.
To measure the impact of human-induced climate change on soil moisture deficiencies, scientists analyzed meteorological data and computer simulations to compare the current climate, which is the result of a warming of global temperature of about 1.2°C since the end of the 19th century. climate of the past, following peer-reviewed methods, reports WWA in a statement.
The study looked at soil moisture levels in June, July and August 2022 across the Northern Hemisphere, excluding the tropics. He also focused on Western and Central Europe, which was experiencing a particularly severe drought, where crop yields fell significantly (this part of the European continent stretches from the Atlantic to the Eastern Black Sea, between the Mediterranean and the Baltic).
The researchers analyzed the moisture levels of both the top 7 cm of soil and the top 100 cm.. The top meter, known as the root zone, is particularly important for crops as it is where plants draw water. Dryness in this land area is often referred to as agricultural and ecological drought.
The researchers found that climate change is making soil moisture droughts in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere more likely in the summer of 2022, both at the surface level and in the root zone. They estimate that human-induced climate change makes surface drought at least five times more likely, and agro-farming and drought at least 20 times more likely.
Climate change has also made drought more likely in the Western and Central European region. Researchers estimate that anthropogenic warming has increased surface drought by 5-6 times, and agricultural and ecological drought by 3-4 times.
Equal drought every 20 years instead of every 400 years
Scientists have calculated that in the current climate, warmed by human greenhouse gas emissions, a drought like this summer can be expected about once every 20 years in both regions. This means that If humans had not warmed the planet, agricultural drought in the northern hemisphere would be expected about once every 400 years or less.; and in Europe agricultural and ecological drought would occur approximately every 60-80 years.
The exact contribution of climate change to agriculture and drought ecology is difficult to measure, the researchers note. Unlike temperature or precipitation, which can be measured directly, soil moisture needs to be estimated, increasing the complexity of the analysis.
This complexity means that the results have a wide possible range, and the estimates of the impact of climate change in the study are conservative: the actual impact of human activities is likely higher. While the changes in precipitation were relatively minor, the impact of climate change on rising temperatures was the main factor increasing the risk of agricultural and ecological drought, according to the scientists.
Climate change has increased temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere so much that a summer as hot as this year would be nearly impossible without climate changescientists point out.
The study was conducted by 21 researchers as part of the World Weather Citation group, including scientists from institutions in Switzerland, France, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The hottest year in Spanish history
On the other hand, The warmest year in the historical series from January to September 2022 and Spain’s third driest country, according to the climate balance released this Thursday by the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet).
Compared to last September, it was a warm month as a whole, with the average temperature over mainland Spain 19.8 degrees Celsius, 0.6 degrees above that month’s average for the 1981-2010 reference period.
It was also the warmest September 21st and the 8th warmest September of the 21st century since the series began in 1961.
September was extremely hot on the southeast coast of the peninsula, very hot on the rest of the Mediterranean coast, warm in the center and northwest quarter of the peninsula, and normal or cold in Extremadura, southern Castilla y León and the west. The end of Andalusia.
In the Balearic Islands it had a very hot or extremely hot character, while in the Canary Islands it offered a very variable character from one region to another, creating a normal set.
The most notable thermal anomalies approach +2 degrees in large areas of Catalonia, eastern Aragon, Valencian Community, Region of Murcia and eastern Andalusia, reaching values close to +3 degrees in some points of these regions.
Anomalies in the Balearic Islands also approached +2 degrees.
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