Why did Bolsonaro come out stronger in the Brazilian first-round election? 5 keys

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The far-right candidate in the presidential elections in Brazil, Jair Bolsonarohit the table this Sunday. The current president, more than predicted by the polls, which pointed to a result close to 36% of the vote. 43% achieved at the end, seven points higher than expected. Although his main rival is the former president, here are some data that accelerated his campaign and kept him alive before the runoff. Lula da Silvareceived 48% of the vote and over six million votes away.

wrong polls

“We beat the lie today,” he assured. Bolsonaro Shortly after learning the results, referring to demoscopic companies. We have a second round ahead of us, where both sides go out on equal terms,” ​​he said. head of institute ippeauthor of one of the nation’s largest surveys, blamed the media“They treated the results as if they were certain,” he assured. Anthony Lavareda On the free channel. Lavareda cited the secret ballot to justify the seven-point gap between the predictions and Bolsonaro’s final result.

helpful vote

The best Bolsonaro partially explained in relation to surveys helpful vote. Two candidates got more 91% of the vote, the highest figure ever recorded. Many voters chose to vote for Lula to avoid the victory of the current president, while another significant portion of the population chose to stop Bolsonaro. Possible return of Lulaand especially his education, Labor Party (PT)punctuated by scandals corruption and the stagnation of Dilma Rousseff, Lula’s successor in the presidency.

key states

The current president has done better than expected in most states in the southeast and south of the country, and so have many candidates for governors and senators. Biggest surprise in the state Sao Paulomost populous in the country where the current president has succeeded 47% of the votes in front of 41%while he was a candidate for governor from the party of the former president, Fernando HaddadAfter falling behind Bolsonaro’s candidate, the position will be played in the second round, Tarcisio de Freitas. The president’s party, Liberal (PL), has the largest meeting in either country. Congress as in SenateIt will further complicate Lula’s missions in the event of a final victory in the second round.

Bolsonaro administration

The last four years of Bolsonaro’s government have not hurt him as much as many expected. Its position in the face of the pandemic, along with delays in purchasing vaccines, has placed Brazil in second place in the number of deaths worldwide. almost 700,000 dead, behind only the United States. But neither covid nor effect of inflationIt ended their chances of winning in the second round, which resulted in a significant increase in the basic shopping cart.

pull the subclass

In the first round, where the two main candidates have the majority of the votes, they will make an extra effort to get the votes. party support and the nominees falling this Sunday. possible support Simone TebbetThe third person with the most votes in the first round could give Lula a boost to defend his advantage against Bolsonaro, who will try to attract the lower classes to overcome the election. next 30 october.

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