Some 156.5 million voters They go to the polls in Brazil on Sunday to renew Congress and elect regional governors, as well as elect a president in a polarized dispute between far-right Jair Bolsonaro and progressive Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
On the eve of the most polarized presidential election in Brazilian history, the real question is whether Lula is the leader of the left. workers’ party (PT) will receive more than half of the valid votes, which will guarantee the election without the need for a runoff.
This is because, according to recent surveys, former union leader has 50% of valid votes (already white and with zero discount), while the far-right leader, who seeks re-election, has 36%.
Faced with such a situation, Lula spent the last days of his campaign in the so-called “useful vote”that is, candidates who do not have the means to attract voters to themselves identify the cause on Sunday that wants to support him.
The former president (2003-2010) extended his campaign to Ceará, the labor leader’s biggest influence on Friday. Cyrus GomesHe is the third-largest candidate in the 2018 presidential election, and third in this year’s polls (by 6%), with the intention of trying to win over the electorate of his former minister.
According to analysts, Lula’s secure re-election Not only because of its success in the “useful vote” campaign on Sunday, but also level of abstentionbecause low turnout in the polls can hurt you.
Bolsonaro may not recognize results
The other big question on the eve of the presidential election, as the president put it, is Bolsonaro’s possible reaction in the event of a defeat. will accept the result only if the elections are “clean and transparent”, something that creates uncertainty.
The far-right leader, as Lula appears as a favorite in the polls questioning the reliability and security of the electronic voting system implying that he may be subject to fraud and claiming that electoral authorities prefer his opponent.
Some sectors, including PT leaders, fear that the head of state is laying the groundwork for new pursuits. support for a possible coup
Electronic ballot boxes have been used by Brazil since 1996. No fraud has been proven so far.
Regional and legal disadvantage
Leaders in polls in disagreements over regional governments, despite Lula’s broad favoritism in the presidential election centre-right party candidates.
Brazilian Union, a party born out of a right-wing merger last year Democrats and the Social Liberal PartyA formation that could win more governorships in regional elections, according to the latest polls, since its candidates are favorites in at least 7 of the country’s 27 states.
Next, the parties with the most candidates leading in the polls are: Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB)with the largest centre-right force in the country and the option to elect the governors of the four states, Progressive Party (PP)with three favorite candidates.
Between the Lula and Bolsonaro parties less competitive in regions but the PT is leading polls in three states, including São Paulo, the country’s most populous and wealthiest and never ruled by this centre-left force.
As for Congress, where all members will be elected. 513 deputies and 27 out of 81 senators (one-third), projections suggest that the future president will have to deal with a somewhat revamped, highly fragmented Congress with a majority of legislators tied to conservative and centre-right parties.
Conservative parties will continue to occupy, according to Quaest’s forecasts. half of the seats in the lower housethose on the right will shrink slightly (from 253 to 245) and those on the left will grow (from 121 to 129).
Parties close to the Lula-led coalition Increase your repetitions from 222 to 234Including some centrist formations that supported previous PT governments, according to Quaest.
Those orbiting Bolsonaro From 194 to 181 they will lose some seatsaccording to the same projections.