Governor Bank of SpainPablo Hernández de Cos took the lead this Monday business to revise economic growth for 2023 Y will raise your estimate inflation Annual average until 2024 The next update of its macroeconomic forecasts will be published in early October.
In his speech at the ‘Economy and Society’ Chair of the La Caixa Foundation, the governor explained that the latest indicators tend to confirm the situation. Loss of momentum in activity in the third quartermoderation of employment dynamism among them.
The latest projections from the Bank of Spain, released in June, include a GDP growth of 4.1% in 2022, 2.8% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024, alongside 7.2% in 2022. projected 2.6% inflation in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024.
The combination of high inflation, tightening financing conditions Associated with the rise in interest rates and continued bottlenecks in many countries, among other things, negatively impacted the global economy and caused an overall downward revision in macroeconomic projections, as announced by the governor.
All this in context a new recession is not ruled outHernández de Cos emphasized that the probability of financial markets causing a global recession has increased significantly.
Loss of purchasing power
The governor insisted loss of purchasing power household numbers are very important, while job margins show relative stability at the aggregate level. According to him, although inflationary pressures were transferred very limitedly to negotiated wages and job margins, the presence of inflation protectors and the transfer of cost increases to final prices by companies increased.
Therefore, he insisted that there was a need. Rental contract within the framework of social dialogue, which agrees on the sharing of costs between companies and workers.
The governor assessed that the future evolution of the economy continues to be largely conditioned by the risk of a crisis. feedback of price and cost increasesIt will have a very negative impact on foreign competitiveness and lead to additional job and growth losses.