Europe and Spain pay war price Ukraine and counter-sanctions Russia. Not just now, but also next year. slowdown in economic growthit will just be in 0.3% European Union. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 1.5% Spanish GDP growth forecast By 2023, according to the report presented this Monday by the Paris-based international organization. This represents a seven-tenth decrease compared to the 2.2% forecast in the previous report submitted in June, and is well below the estimate in the Government’s macroeconomic picture for the coming year (2.7%) (1.5%).
By contrast, slightly more optimistic for the OECD 2022 More than the Spanish Government, which still maintains a 4.3% growth forecast for this year. The international organization is raising its forecast for this year by almost three-tenths. 4.4%. Despite a clear slowdown, Spain is among the European countries where GDP will increase the most next year. Post-pandemic growth in the EU, inflationThe war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. Former Continent economies will grow 3.1% this year and only 0.3% next year.
From the government’s perspective, the OECD’s new perspectives confirm the strong growth of the Spanish economy, which is revised upwards in 2022 and will exceed the average growth of the world, the G20 and the euro area. The Ministry of Economy also states that in 2023, the Spanish economy will be five times the average growth forecast for the euro area. As for inflation, the OECD report predicts a 9.1% rate for the Spanish economy this year, the second highest rate in the OECD and the G20 as a whole, behind Turkey (71%). The Spanish Government underlines that the OECD’s inflation forecast for Spain in 2023 (5%) will be 1.2 points below the euro area average.
Economy slowing ‘especially in Europe’
“There is a loss of economic momentum globally, but especially in Europe”, stated the OECD, whose report was titled “Paying the Price of War”. the brakes of the European economies, Germany. engine of the continent going into recession next year (-0.7%), GDP rose just 1.7% this year. Growth will also be stunted in 2023 in other neighboring countries such as France (0.6%) or Italy (0.4%).
Although the European economy paid for the war, slowdown will be global. Provide support interest rate hike policy It is led by the US Federal Reserve, followed by the European Central Bank. The growth of the United States economy will be 0.5% in 2023, seven-tenths less than the previous forecast, and that of China 4.7% (-0.2). The OECD slightly lowered its 2023 forecast for Russia, whose economy will shrink by 4.5% in 2023.
“Inflationary pressures are becoming more common as energy, transport and other costs put on prices rise,” the OECD says. Inflation will remain high in 2023, especially due to the crisis in energy prices. Spain is one of the most developed countries in the world. energy costs increased relative to the current crisis. If these costs were already particularly high in Spain in the period 2019-2021 (5% of GDPCompared to less than 4% in Germany, France, the United Kingdom or the United States), they have increased rapidly in 2022 and will represent about 11% of GDP.
This is due to the Spanish economy’s great dependence on energy, which is higher than most of its neighbors. Except for the special case of Turkey, where inflation is out of control. (expected 71% increase in 2022), At 9.1% this year, Spain has the highest proportion of those in both the OECD and the G20, above the UK (8.8%), Germany (8.4%) or Italy (7.8%) will be the country with the ratio. , but most of all from the United States (6.2%), France (5.9%) or Japan (2.2%).
The situation should soften a bit in the coming year, but without even remotely returning to the pre-crisis situation. Expected inflation in Spain will be 5%, lower than that of the eurozone as a whole (7.5% in Germany, 5.8% in France or 4.7% in Italy). The eurozone will continue to be confused by the energy supply problem.