Any Man’s Front, dissatisfaction between bourgeoisie before the political class, it was one of the first populist experiments recent history Italyin 1946. In the same year, the post-fascist Italian Social Movement emerged. Brothers of Italy by Giorgia Meloni. And in the last 75 years, there have been 67 governments in the country, 11 of which have succeeded in the last two decades alone.
However, today is another story. This is so because, since the collapse of fascism, never before has a far-right party like the Brothers of Italy grown so much in the polls. first game With the intention to vote in the general elections to be held on 25 September. this Pandemic, Economic crisis Ten years of subsequent Italian prime ministers appointed without polls have rewarded this formation, the only one outside of all governments in the past 10 years.
An unprecedented scenario that has alarmed the foreign ministries of major European countries and the Italian ‘establishment’. The reasons are many.
war times
ItalyA member of the G-7 and G-20, for many years The bridge between Moscow and the rest of Europe. But with technocrat mario draghi As prime minister, the country closed its ranks with other allies, gave almost unwavering support to the Ukrainian government, and gave Italy a prominent role on the European board. So much so that he was a key player when it came to going up against Rome. Olaf School, German Chancellor and Emmanuel Macron, The French president said that Ukraine is a candidate country for entry into the European Union. This allowed Paris, Rome and Berlin to display unity in the conflict with Russia.
Therefore, they celebrated the downfall of Draghi, who achieved success in Russia in a few months. Reducing Italy’s dependence on Russian gas (from 40% to 25%). A path whose continuation looks doubtful given the lack of a single position within the centre-right coalition. to flirt Of Meloni’s two partners –Matteo Salvinileague leader and Silvio BerlusconiThe boss of Forza Italia— with Moscow.
In this sense, the changing of the guard realign the balance of power To become a member of the European Union and to stop the integration between member states.
The subject is different atlantist position of italy He said the right-wing coalition is not up for debate, as Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, recently underlined. On the contrary, Tocci said, “The Euro-Atlantic anchor may become even stronger after the elections.”
Post-pandemic economy
Italy, tEU’s third economy, suffered economic collapse terrible for PandemicAccording to the IMF, it has rebounded almost 7% last year and its GDP growth forecast is 3% for 2022.
However, Draghi will leave before the next Italian budget law is approved, and that task will be left to the new Executive, who must submit the Italian plan to the European Commission.
Although analysts believe it Italy will stay in line As Draghi agrees, tensions are not excluded. This is also because the country is almost 200,000 million euro loans and subsidies It must demonstrate that it will continue to comply with the terms of the EU recovery plan. targets agreed with Brussels.
In addition, with the changing of the guard, Franco-Italian axisPowered by Draghi and Macron. In fact, the latter also loses an ally for plans to change the European bloc’s financial rules. Likewise, the “privileged cooperation” agreement signed between Rome and Paris last year, which was criticized by Meloni at that time and caused black humor in the Spanish and German prime ministers, continues to be questioned.
foreign (poor) enemy
A extremely destabilizing factor In the relations between Rome and Brussels, at the stage of the Government of the 5 Star Movement, Matteo Salvini, most harsh immigration policy Now, with the possible shift to the right, Salvini would not only return to power, but would also have the support of Meloni, who supported a strong hand against immigration.
The foreword is not the best. Salvini opened his election campaign with statements against him. migrationand Meloni proposed a naval blockade of the African coast to block the migration route from the central Mediterranean.
“To secure borders yes, no to mass immigration,” the right-wing politician said at a recent rally to support Macarena Olona’s candidacy in Andalusia.
In their program, Meloni and Salvini also support the controversial proposal that asylum seekers’ claims should be processed in centers located in non-EU countries.
LGBT rights and abortion
The eventual takeover of the right-wing coalition also threatens to provoke tensions between Brussels and Rome due to Meloni’s open hostility to the EU. collective LGBTI, at a time when other European countries like Hungary Those brought before the EU Court of Justice for laws that discriminate against this group. Even more so, for Meloni, it’s about criticizing one of his great warhorses, a left that, in his view, is “really and away from Italian problems”.
Feminist collectives also right abortionLegalized in Italy in 1978 with the repeal of previous legislation dating back to the fascist era. Meloni said she saw the voluntary termination of pregnancy as “a defeat for society”. BrandsA territory held by the Italian Brotherhood has even blocked a directive of the Italian Ministry of Health authorizing the distribution of medicines not only to hospitals but also to clinics. abortion pills. All this in a country where there are so many doctors who refuse to have abortions.