“Good thing we’re here! How are you today, mate?” ‘ Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan asked his guest, who came to greet him with open arms. “Excellent. Even more so since he arrived,” replied Vladimir Putin to his guest.
It would be later. Putin laughed and showed Erdogan his new face warplanes and there, in the middle of the airport sochisouth of Russiathey both went to get some ice creams. To beat the heat, of course. “You’re going to pay for me, aren’t you?” Erdogan laughed. she asked. “Sure, sure. How not? you are my guestPutin replied.
The scene took place in another world, yes, in one of the multiple talks between the two presidents in 2019. At that time, Erdogan and Putin were together. perfect relationshipespecially after Turkey made peace over the downing of a Russian fighter on the border with Syria and the attempted coup in Turkey. Turkey from 2016.
But three years later, everything would change. Russia began to invade Ukraine in February 2022, after which another war will begin, this commercial and economicagainst their country, NATOTurkey has been a member since 1952.
Russia will lose contact with all member states of the transatlantic alliance. Except for one. Relationship between Putin and Erdogan since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine deepened. While I don’t classify their relationship as a strategic partnership, that’s a fact. Rather it would be one temporary interest marriage created by the accumulation of common interests”, explains the Turkish analyst Karim hasexpert on relationships Ankara Y Moscow.
Putin and Erdogan met this summer face to face three times, and invoked countless other times. Russia sees Turkey sole mediator with Ukraine and the West and Istanbul Where several agreements were reached during the conflict between Moscow governments and their governments Kyiv. Why is Turkey, a member of the western bloc, approaching Russia from its weakest point? The answer is in money.
last friend
Turkey is a safe passage It is useful for Moscow. istanbul is great trade Center transportation that Russia needs in these times when many countries in and around it prefer not to deal with the Russian Government. summer while Marc Pieriniprofessional think tank Carnegie Europe, “Politics Kremlin extremely pragmatic: Putin’s aim, knowing that Turkey’s NATO allies want to keep Ankara, Zoom in on Erdogan “It is increasingly showing interest in Russia through operations in the fields of defence, energy, trade and finance,” he said.
For example, the agreement with Turkey rose flower by nuclear power plant Akkuyu According to Pierini, a factory built by Russia in southern Turkey through multi-million-dollar contracts to Turkish construction companies is “a not-so-secret path for Russia. industry agreement Avoid sanctions with Turkey on very difficult and critical equipment.” Currently, many technical equipment such as military, medical, transportation, etc., cannot reach Russia. sanctions imposed from the west; and Moscow does not produce enough to be self-sufficient.
The situation for Erdogan is also limited. “Turkey is suffering a lot from the inflation crisis and Erdogan needs to show that he can solve the country’s problems before the crisis. spring selection. First of all, there are two issues: cool money For the economy and to solve the refugee problem in Turkey. Russia has it both ways,” explains Has.
‘A risky bet’
In Syria, Russia is the main partner of the Syrian president, beshar Esad. Turkey needs the green light from Moscow to realize its plans in Syria; and he also needs Putin to prevent Assad from continuing the war, something that could bring more refugees to Syria. Anatolian peninsula.
According to Has, that’s what Erdogan is doing. a bet. And the dangerous thing is: withdrawing Russian money may help the Turkish economy in the short run, but it also hurts Turkey. secondary sanctions since United States of America Y Europe.
“This is very risky. We will definitely see tensions in relations between Turkey and the West, because right now Turkey is helping. financial needs from Moscow. But European politicians know that if the Turkish economy collapses, the EU’s will suffer as well,” explains Has. For example, the majority of Turkey’s largest bank is Spanish. BBVA.
“Therefore, I think the EU will wait to see the outcome of the Turkish elections if Erdogan stays in power – the analyst continues turkey economic situation. This much a dilemma“. Until that time, ‘business as usual’: everything remains the same.